Game Recap: LAK 7, OTT 8 (OT), October 14, 2024

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Game Recap

LAK7

Final/OTMon, Oct 14, 2024Every game that night

OTT8

OTT beat LAK 8-7 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.82 expected goals to 2.11. OTT outshot LAK 41 to 26. J. Norris led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Laferriere had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. M. Sogaard stopped 13 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
LAK	2	3	2	0	7
OTT	1	4	2	1	8

1st 8:12LAKK. FialaPP0.09 xG
1st 9:07LAKT. Lewis0.12 xG
1st 10:25OTTJ. SandersonPP0.03 xG
2nd 5:31LAKA. KempePP0.11 xG
2nd 10:26OTTZ. MacEwen0.02 xG
2nd 11:16LAKA. Laferriere0.12 xG
2nd 15:13OTTD. BathersonPP0.15 xG
2nd 15:32OTTT. Chabot0.09 xG
2nd 16:25LAKK. FialaPP0.05 xG
2nd 17:52OTTZ. MacEwen0.11 xG
3rd 3:38LAKA. Laferriere0.12 xG
3rd 5:25OTTC. GirouxPP0.16 xG
3rd 9:18OTTJ. NorrisPP0.11 xG
3rd 14:26LAKT. Jeannot0.13 xG
OT 0:56OTTJ. Norris0.15 xG

Team Stats

LAKOTT

26Shots on goal41

2.11Expected goals3.82

46Shot attempts81

185v5 shots on goal31

3/5Power play4/6

22Hits26

22Blocked shots10

17Penalty minutes17

13Giveaways18

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.11 xGOTT 3.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK25 on goal, 7 scored

OTT41 on goal, 8 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kopitar	C	0	3	3	0	1	1	+2	0	20:45	5:08
A. Kempe	RW	1	1	2	3	1	1	+3	0	20:18	4:54
K. Fiala	LW	2	0	2	5	0	0	-2	2	18:38	5:09
A. Laferriere	RW	2	0	2	5	4	2	+2	0	17:05	5:07
T. Jeannot	LW	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	7	10:59	0:00
T. Lewis	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	-1	0	8:07	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6:40	1:37
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	18:45	1:42
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:56	1:42
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	17:35	2:07
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	14:33	0:14
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	7:58	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	3	3	1	0	2	0	2	17:35	5:06
M. Anderson	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	2	19:48	0:00
K. Burroughs	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	2	15:02	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	25:48	0:14
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	22:52	0:15
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:31	1:55

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	41	33	8	.805	60:55	OT loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	3	3	1	1	1	+1	0	20:31	4:26
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	3	3	5	0	0	+1	2	19:54	4:21
J. Norris	C	2	1	3	3	5	1	-1	2	18:21	4:14
D. Batherson	RW	1	2	3	4	4	0	-1	2	16:42	4:16
Z. MacEwen	RW	2	0	2	2	2	0	+2	9	5:14	0:00
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	2	19:53	2:34
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	17:14	2:38
A. Gaudette	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	5:36	0:00
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	0	19:05	2:29
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	14:46	0:03
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	13:20	2:28
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	+1	0	9:03	0:00
T. Chabot	D	1	1	2	5	1	2	-1	0	29:04	2:33
J. Sanderson	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	-1	0	26:45	4:15
N. Jensen	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	23:47	0:07
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	16:14	0:01
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	15:51	0:05
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	9	6	3	.667	26:15
M. Sogaard	17	13	4	.765	34:29	Win

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnton Forsberg LAK Faces OTT, his team until May 20256 saves on 9
Old teamJordan Spence OTT Faces LAK, his team until May 20250 SOG
HometownBrandt Clarke LAK Plays near home (born in Nepean)3 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.1, OTT 3.0	LAK 7, OTT 8
Total goals	6.0	15
Shots on goal	LAK 28.8, OTT 30.1	LAK 26, OTT 41
Win chance	LAK 51%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.3	5	0.90	3	33%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.3	3	0.91	2	35%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.9	2	0.60	0	24%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.9	5	0.91	2	29%	2
OTT S. Pinto	2.6	2	0.55	1	22%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.5	1	0.90	3	28%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.5	4	0.73	3	25%	1
OTT D. Perron	2.3	4	0.66	0	25%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.2	2	0.42	0	18%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.2	2	0.74	1	26%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.0	2	0.46	2	8%	1
LAK Q. Byfield	2.0	0	0.61	0	17%	0
LAK P. Danault	2.0	2	0.59	0	21%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.0	3	0.55	3	26%	2
OTT T. Chabot	1.9	5	0.45	2	9%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	1.9	5	0.33	2	15%	2
LAK A. Kopitar	1.8	0	0.84	3	26%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.7	0	0.23	0	11%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	3	0.37	0	19%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.33	0	7%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.4	1	0.28	3	6%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.4	1	0.18	1	9%	1
OTT A. Gaudette	1.3	0	0.19	1	9%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.2	0	0.37	0	5%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.2	1	0.26	1	5%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.2	0	0.26	0	5%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.1	1	0.17	0	4%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	3	0.20	0	9%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.0	1	0.23	1	4%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	2	0.21	0	5%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	3	0.16	0	3%	0
LAK K. Burroughs	1.0	0	0.13	1	4%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.9	1	0.22	1	11%	1
LAK A. Turcotte	0.9	0	0.16	1	7%	0
OTT Z. MacEwen	0.7	2	0.11	2	5%	2

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.