Game Recap: LAK 2, TOR 6, October 16, 2024

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Game Recap

LAK2

FinalWed, Oct 16, 2024Every game that night

TOR6

TOR beat LAK 6-2, with the chances close: 2.28 expected goals to 2.56. LAK outshot TOR 34 to 26. A. Matthews led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). O. Ekman-Larsson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Stolarz stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	0	0	2	2
TOR	3	2	1	6

1st 6:54TORB. McMann0.16 xG
1st 8:49TORA. Matthews0.06 xG
1st 17:12TORB. McMann0.23 xG
2nd 7:56TORM. Rielly0.09 xG
2nd 18:31TORW. NylanderPP0.04 xG
3rd 2:42LAKA. Turcotte0.17 xG
3rd 9:03LAKK. Fiala0.38 xG
3rd 17:16TORJ. TavaresPP0.19 xG

Team Stats

LAKTOR

34Shots on goal26

2.56Expected goals2.28

70Shot attempts38

305v5 shots on goal17

0/4Power play2/4

26Hits28

8Blocked shots17

8Penalty minutes8

10Giveaways6

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.56 xGTOR 2.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK34 on goal, 2 scored

TOR25 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-1	0	17:47	4:56
A. Turcotte	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	14:14	2:09
T. Lewis	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	12:56	0:30
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	3	3	0	+1	2	11:03	0:02
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	17:12	4:26
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	17:11	4:21
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	16:21	2:36
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:32	2:05
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	15:04	2:17
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	14:52	4:18
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:29	0:47
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:16	0:26
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	19:43	4:26
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	0	22:26	1:06
C. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	19:55	2:51
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	18:43	0:04
K. Burroughs	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	18:18	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	14:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	14	10	4	.714	32:22	Loss
P. Copley	12	10	2	.833	27:29

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	3	3	1	0	0	+1	0	18:37	5:05
A. Matthews	C	1	2	3	4	0	1	+1	0	18:02	5:04
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+3	0	17:33	5:15
B. McMann	C	2	0	2	2	3	0	+3	0	14:58	0:50
M. Domi	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+3	0	13:12	0:40
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	-1	0	16:10	5:12
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	15:49	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	15:11	0:43
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:39	0:51
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:01	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	5	4	-1	0	11:27	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	9:42	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	2	2	4	1	2	+2	2	21:00	4:49
J. McCabe	D	0	2	2	0	3	1	+3	2	18:38	0:00
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	2	19:56	1:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	20:41	0:06
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	20:29	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	13:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	34	32	2	.941	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownQuinton Byfield LAK Plays near home (born in Newmarket)3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.9, TOR 3.4	LAK 2, TOR 6
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	LAK 28.1, TOR 31.7	LAK 34, TOR 26
Win chance	TOR 59%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.1	4	1.14	3	46%	1
TOR W. Nylander	3.3	3	1.02	2	36%	1
TOR J. Tavares	3.1	3	0.80	1	30%	1
LAK A. Kempe	3.0	4	0.89	0	34%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.6	4	0.88	1	28%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.6	1	0.57	0	23%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.2	1	1.13	3	30%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.0	1	0.41	0	17%	0
TOR M. Rielly	2.0	1	0.68	1	8%	1
TOR M. Knies	1.9	2	0.52	0	20%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.9	2	0.37	2	18%	2
TOR M. Domi	1.8	1	0.65	2	17%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	1.8	2	0.35	0	16%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.8	2	0.56	0	20%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.8	3	0.58	0	16%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.6	3	0.83	0	25%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	1	0.36	0	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	4	0.35	2	6%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.3	1	0.32	1	5%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.3	3	0.28	0	6%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.2	1	0.17	1	8%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.1	1	0.22	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.34	2	6%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	1	0.32	0	13%	0
TOR T. Liljegren	0.9	0	0.32	0	6%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.9	0	0.24	0	9%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	1	0.18	0	9%	0
LAK K. Burroughs	0.8	0	0.11	0	3%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.8	0	0.22	0	11%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.09	0	2%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	1	0.22	0	3%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.7	3	0.16	1	6%	1
LAK C. Jones	0.6	1	0.14	0	3%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.5	1	0.14	0	6%	0
LAK A. Englund	0.4	1	0.11	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.