Game Recap: LAK 4, UTA 2, December 8, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK4

FinalMon, Dec 8, 2025Every game that night

UTA2

LAK beat UTA 4-2, with the chances close: 2.36 expected goals to 2.15. J. Armia led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Armia had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. D. Kuemper stopped 19 of 21.

Team Stats

LAKUTA

27Shots on goal21

2.36Expected goals2.15

55Shot attempts51

265v5 shots on goal17

0/1Power play1/4

17Hits32

15Blocked shots18

8Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways11

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.36 xGUTA 2.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK25 on goal, 3 scored

UTA20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	0	17:38	0:51
A. Kempe	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	2	16:37	0:53
J. Armia	RW	2	0	2	4	0	1	+2	0	16:21	1:10
A. Kopitar	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+2	0	18:03	0:50
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	18:19	1:09
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	3	5	0	+1	0	16:19	1:00
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:15	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	15:51	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:33	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:51	1:07
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	7:35	0:00
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6:58	0:52
J. Edmundson	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	20:44	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	+2	0	23:50	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+2	2	21:54	0:58
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	17:37	0:08
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	17:27	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	16:48	1:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	21	19	2	.905	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	21:24	5:00
J. Peterka	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	22:07	5:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	19:38	4:59
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	0	15:52	4:57
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	18:27	1:23
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	15:03	1:20
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	7	2	-1	0	14:59	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	13:35	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:17	1:20
D. But	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	2	12:16	1:21
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	10:14	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	8:49	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	-2	0	24:01	4:40
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	-2	0	23:41	2:09
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	18:23	0:00
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	17:00	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	+1	0	15:33	0:00
M. Lamoureux	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	+1	0	15:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	26	23	3	.885	58:08	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar15:27A. Kempe15:15A. Laferriere13:37

Line 2P. Danault13:57T. Moore14:06W. Foegele13:58

Line 3Q. Byfield13:19J. Armia12:34K. Fiala16:03

Line 4C. Perry8:44A. Turcotte7:35A. Kuzmenko6:06

Pair 1D. Doughty19:52M. Anderson18:25

Pair 2J. Edmundson16:58B. Clarke15:46

Pair 3B. Dumoulin15:09C. Ceci14:34

UTA

Line 1C. Keller15:16J. Peterka16:25N. Schmaltz13:33

Line 2L. Crouse14:43M. Carcone13:19J. McBain13:46

Line 3B. Hayton11:43D. But10:40D. Guenther10:24

Line 4L. O'Brien10:14K. Stenlund11:57B. Tanev8:49

Pair 1S. Durzi20:33M. Sergachev17:48

Pair 2I. Cole14:23M. Lamoureux15:29

Pair 3N. Schmidt17:13J. Marino15:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayDrew Doughty LAK Turns 36 that day3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.8, UTA 2.9	LAK 4, UTA 2
Total goals	5.7	6
Shots on goal	LAK 25.6, UTA 27.9	LAK 27, UTA 21
Win chance	UTA 52%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	2.8	1	0.77	2	30%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.7	1	0.68	1	26%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.6	1	0.83	2	31%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.6	3	0.85	2	28%	1
UTA J. Peterka	2.2	0	0.69	1	26%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.0	3	0.47	0	19%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.0	2	0.68	1	23%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.0	0	0.68	0	21%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.0	2	0.46	0	11%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	0	0.39	0	21%	0
LAK T. Moore	1.8	0	0.48	0	19%	0
LAK W. Foegele	1.8	1	0.39	0	18%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.7	4	0.54	1	10%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.7	2	0.37	0	17%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	2	0.39	0	16%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.5	0	0.41	0	20%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.4	3	0.36	0	8%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.3	0	0.44	0	14%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.3	3	0.71	1	22%	1
LAK J. Armia	1.3	4	0.39	2	16%	2
UTA N. Schmidt	1.2	0	0.31	0	6%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	0	0.31	0	12%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.2	0	0.49	0	20%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.2	3	0.42	0	10%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	1	0.23	1	5%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.0	0	0.26	0	12%	0
UTA M. Lamoureux	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	0	0.13	0	6%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.9	3	0.23	0	4%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.8	0	0.31	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.8	2	0.23	0	5%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.8	2	0.22	0	8%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.7	0	0.20	0	3%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.7	1	0.14	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 12 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.