Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
LAK1
VGK6
VGK beat LAK 6-1, with the chances close: 2.98 expected goals to 2.89. T. Hertl led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). A. Lee had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. I. Samsonov stopped 34 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| VGK | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
- 1st 9:07VGKT. HertlPP0.19 xG
- 1st 13:51VGKM. StonePP0.12 xG
- 1st 15:12VGKP. Dorofeyev0.08 xG
- 2nd 19:07LAKW. Foegele0.01 xG
- 3rd 2:59VGKA. Holtz0.22 xG
- 3rd 8:26VGKT. Hertl0.69 xG
- 3rd 13:25VGKI. Barbashev0.19 xG
Team Stats
LAKVGK
35Shots on goal30
2.89Expected goals2.98
80Shot attempts53
305v5 shots on goal25
0/4Power play2/2
35Hits21
12Blocked shots21
4Penalty minutes8
17Giveaways14
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.89 xGVGK 2.98 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Foegele | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 1:31 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:55 | 5:01 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:24 | 4:59 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 4:47 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 4:52 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:03 | 3:00 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 2:56 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 2:44 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:00 | 1:44 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:10 | 3:08 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:22 | 0:10 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 22:00 | 4:48 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:49 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 30 | 24 | 6 | .800 | 59:47 | Loss |
| P. Copley | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hertl | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:57 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:57 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:57 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:57 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| B. Brisson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 20:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:27 | 0:57 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 35 | 34 | 1 | .971 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.9, VGK 3.1 | LAK 1, VGK 6 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 29.3, VGK 28.8 | LAK 35, VGK 30 |
| Win chance | VGK 54% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.7 | 2 | 1.09 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.9 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.7 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.6 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.1 | 5 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.0 | 4 | 0.91 | 3 | 28% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.0 | 4 | 0.49 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.0 | 5 | 0.64 | 4 | 24% | 2 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.9 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 1.9 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.8 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.8 | 2 | 0.47 | 3 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.6 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.6 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 4 | 0.60 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK B. Brisson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK A. Lee | 1.0 | 4 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.9 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK A. Englund | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.