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Game Recap
LAK6
VGK5
LAK beat VGK 6-5, with the chances close: 2.80 expected goals to 2.68. T. Hertl scored three for VGK. B. Saad had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. D. Rittich stopped 27 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| VGK | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
- 1st 11:22LAKA. Kopitar0.09 xG
- 1st 18:29LAKB. Clarke0.23 xG
- 2nd 1:56LAKQ. Byfield0.13 xG
- 2nd 5:00VGKN. Roy0.06 xG
- 2nd 9:47VGKT. Hertl0.10 xG
- 2nd 18:51LAKW. Foegele0.16 xG
- 3rd 4:02LAKT. Moore0.14 xG
- 3rd 8:28VGKT. HertlPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 10:57LAKA. KempePP0.16 xG
- 3rd 11:33VGKB. Saad0.18 xG
- 3rd 17:48VGKT. Hertl0.23 xG
Team Stats
LAKVGK
35Shots on goal32
2.80Expected goals2.68
66Shot attempts66
345v5 shots on goal26
1/1Power play1/1
29Hits17
17Blocked shots18
7Penalty minutes7
23Giveaways20
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.80 xGVGK 2.68 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:25 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:25 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:25 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:00 |
| T. Moore | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:25 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:59 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:17 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 27:40 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:45 | 0:25 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 32 | 27 | 5 | .844 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hertl | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:37 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:50 | 0:37 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:37 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:37 |
| N. Roy | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:27 | 0:37 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 17:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hill | 35 | 29 | 6 | .829 | 57:09 | Loss |
| I. Samsonov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.4, VGK 3.2 | LAK 6, VGK 5 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 24.4, VGK 28.7 | LAK 35, VGK 32 |
| Win chance | VGK 63% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.1 | 3 | 1.03 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.8 | 4 | 0.74 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.7 | 3 | 0.73 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 4 | 0.60 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.4 | 2 | 0.48 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.3 | 4 | 0.43 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.2 | 3 | 0.68 | 3 | 26% | 3 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.1 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 2 | 0.89 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.7 | 5 | 0.46 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.7 | 1 | 0.49 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.5 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.4 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.3 | 2 | 0.65 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.18 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.8 | 3 | 0.22 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.5 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.