Game Recap: LAK 6, VGK 5 (SO), October 8, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

LAK6

Final/SOWed, Oct 8, 2025Every game that night

VGK5

LAK beat VGK 6-5 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.05 expected goals to 3.13. VGK outshot LAK 35 to 26. J. Eichel led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). C. Ceci had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. A. Forsberg stopped 30 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
LAK	2	1	2	1	6
VGK	0	3	2	0	5

1st 4:41LAKA. KuzmenkoPP0.08 xG
1st 11:57LAKQ. Byfield0.14 xG
2nd 2:10VGKP. Dorofeyev0.02 xG
2nd 13:41LAKJ. Malott0.10 xG
2nd 17:32VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.20 xG
2nd 19:14VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.19 xG
3rd 5:06VGKJ. Eichel0.10 xG
3rd 8:43VGKI. Barbashev0.19 xG
3rd 11:39LAKT. MooreSH0.21 xG
3rd 14:00LAKB. Clarke0.22 xG

Team Stats

LAKVGK

26Shots on goal35

2.05Expected goals3.13

44Shot attempts70

195v5 shots on goal24

1/1Power play2/6

37Hits36

18Blocked shots14

13Penalty minutes6

21Giveaways17

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.05 xGVGK 3.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK24 on goal, 5 scored

VGK35 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	1	1	2	3	1	1	0	2	19:49	0:22
A. Kuzmenko	LW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	0	15:52	0:22
K. Fiala	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	0	18:41	0:22
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	18:26	0:00
T. Moore	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:42	0:00
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	16:41	0:22
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	9:51	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	5	7:08	0:00
J. Malott	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+2	0	6:41	0:00
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	4	2	2	0	0	18:04	0:22
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	1	8	1	-1	2	16:28	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:25	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	1	1	1	3	3	+1	2	25:48	0:00
B. Clarke	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	0	15:20	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	+1	0	23:29	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	21:11	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	4	1	3	-2	0	19:37	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+2	2	19:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	35	30	5	.857	64:23	Win
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	1	3	4	5	1	0	+2	0	22:04	5:04
P. Dorofeyev	RW	3	0	3	5	0	1	0	0	20:14	5:15
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	3	1	1	+2	0	22:48	4:52
M. Stone	RW	0	2	2	3	0	1	-2	0	17:54	4:20
I. Barbashev	LW	1	1	2	2	5	0	0	0	15:50	2:06
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	19:30	4:53
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	-3	2	16:39	1:55
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:23	0:51
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	12:49	1:06
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:40	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	11:23	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:47	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	24:23	1:45
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	24:00	2:50
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	20:11	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	18:19	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	6	0	+1	0	14:26	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	14:25	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	26	21	5	.808	64:53	OT loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1Q. Byfield14:44A. Laferriere13:44K. Fiala15:01

Line 2P. Danault13:56T. Moore13:11W. Foegele11:55

Line 3A. Kopitar12:53A. Kempe13:36A. Kuzmenko13:28

Line 4J. Armia7:33A. Turcotte6:35J. Malott6:41

Pair 1D. Doughty19:32M. Anderson18:10

Pair 2C. Ceci15:19B. Dumoulin15:04

Pair 3J. Edmundson15:15B. Clarke12:53

VGK

Line 1M. Marner13:58I. Barbashev13:44J. Eichel13:00

Line 2B. Saad11:34T. Hertl13:11P. Dorofeyev11:52

Line 3C. Sissons11:01B. Howden11:32K. Kolesar10:47

Line 4M. Stone11:16W. Karlsson10:52R. Smith10:50

Pair 1N. Hanifin17:22Z. Whitecloud16:38

Pair 2B. McNabb16:15S. Theodore17:55

Pair 3J. Lauzon13:42K. Korczak14:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.6, VGK 3.3	LAK 6, VGK 5
Total goals	5.9	11
Shots on goal	LAK 25.2, VGK 29.4	LAK 26, VGK 35
Win chance	VGK 61%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	5	1.11	4	32%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.1	5	0.61	3	30%	3
LAK K. Fiala	3.1	1	0.76	1	29%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.9	4	0.80	0	31%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.5	0	0.48	0	20%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.4	2	0.71	0	27%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.3	1	0.44	0	17%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.3	1	0.51	1	21%	1
VGK W. Karlsson	2.2	5	0.64	0	23%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.2	3	0.66	2	22%	1
VGK S. Theodore	2.2	3	0.70	0	11%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.0	3	0.45	0	10%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.0	3	0.84	2	26%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	3	1.11	2	28%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.7	1	0.49	0	18%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.7	2	0.57	1	17%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.7	0	0.42	0	19%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.6	2	0.63	2	23%	1
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.6	2	0.61	2	24%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.4	0	0.41	0	19%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	1	0.43	1	10%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.3	0	0.72	1	21%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	0	0.29	0	5%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.3	1	0.27	1	5%	1
LAK J. Armia	1.1	3	0.27	1	12%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	1	0.26	0	10%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	1	0.23	0	2%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	0	0.18	0	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	1.0	2	0.25	0	5%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	1	0.12	0	4%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.19	0	6%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.9	4	0.19	0	4%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.9	0	0.25	0	10%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.8	0	0.19	1	7%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.6	1	0.08	1	4%	1

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.