Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
LAK1
VGK4
VGK beat LAK 4-1, with the chances close: 2.58 expected goals to 2.95. LAK outshot VGK 33 to 22. M. Stone led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). Q. Byfield had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Hill stopped 32 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| VGK | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 8:22VGKJ. Eichel0.12 xG
- 1st 11:49VGKM. Stone0.12 xG
- 1st 13:29VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.15 xG
- 1st 13:49VGKM. Marner0.11 xG
- 1st 15:03LAKT. Moore0.12 xG
Team Stats
LAKVGK
33Shots on goal22
2.95Expected goals2.58
73Shot attempts46
235v5 shots on goal18
0/5Power play1/2
18Hits17
12Blocked shots21
9Penalty minutes15
19Giveaways18
7Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.95 xGVGK 2.58 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:09 | 4:08 |
| T. Moore | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 1:57 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:30 | 6:57 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:58 | 6:36 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:50 | 6:25 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:40 | 3:33 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 3:25 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Ward | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 3:02 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:23 | 3:55 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:37 | 6:19 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:03 | 3:40 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:03 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 60:00 | Loss |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:14 |
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:14 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:14 |
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:12 | 0:14 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:14 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:55 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:23 | 0:52 |
| K. Uchacz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12:06 | 1:08 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:56 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:46 | 1:05 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 1:04 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 24:08 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 24:03 | 0:50 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:29 | 1:13 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:22 | 1:10 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:47 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1J. Malott11:11S. Helenius10:13T. Ward8:23
Line 2C. Perry12:30A. Laferriere13:07T. Moore15:03
Line 3A. Kopitar15:13J. Armia15:04Q. Byfield13:53
Pair 1D. Doughty16:33B. Dumoulin18:49
Pair 2B. Clarke18:18J. Edmundson15:59
Pair 3C. Ceci15:49J. Moverare9:52
VGK
Line 1M. Stone13:57J. Eichel14:06I. Barbashev14:06
Line 2M. Marner12:45P. Dorofeyev13:23R. Smith12:00
Line 3T. Hertl10:48A. Holtz11:05K. Kolesar10:00
Line 4C. Reinhardt10:27B. Bowman9:59K. Uchacz10:18
Pair 1R. Andersson18:42N. Hanifin18:21
Pair 2S. Theodore16:50J. Lauzon17:56
Pair 3B. Hutton11:22K. Korczak12:30
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.7, VGK 3.2 | LAK 1, VGK 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 23.5, VGK 28.5 | LAK 33, VGK 22 |
| Win chance | VGK 59% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.3 | 4 | 1.09 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.5 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.4 | 1 | 0.71 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.4 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.2 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.1 | 1 | 0.98 | 3 | 28% | 1 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.9 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| VGK R. Andersson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.9 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.8 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.8 | 5 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.6 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 0 | 0.59 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK T. Ward | 0.9 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK C. Reinhardt | 0.8 | 4 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.3 | 2 | 0.07 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.