Game Recap: LAK 1, VGK 2 (OT), October 10, 2026

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Game Recap

LAK1

Final/OTSat, Oct 10, 2026Every game that night

VGK2

VGK beat LAK 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.77 expected goals to 1.69. T. Connelly led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Connelly had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. C. Hart stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
LAK	0	1	0	0	1
VGK	0	1	0	1	2

2nd 2:37VGKT. ConnellyPP0.10 xG
2nd 6:21LAKA. PanarinPP0.10 xG
OT 2:40VGKM. MarnerPP0.19 xG

Team Stats

LAKVGK

27Shots on goal32

1.69Expected goals2.77

58Shot attempts61

185v5 shots on goal29

1/3Power play2/3

17Hits19

13Blocked shots14

13Penalty minutes13

17Giveaways16

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 1.69 xGVGK 2.77 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK26 on goal, 1 scored

VGK32 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	21:08	3:24
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	3	3	1	0	19:34	3:02
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:02	3:28
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	19:05	3:22
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:27	0:06
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	17:08	0:28
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	7	15:39	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:52	1:22
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:33	0:02
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:47	0:00
J. Wright	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:24	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:05	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	2	16:55	2:08
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	24:01	0:08
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	21:59	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	21:35	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	19:16	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	32	30	2	.938	61:20	OT loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	1	2	3	0	2	0	20:16	2:56
M. Stone	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	18:51	2:37
T. Connelly	LW	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	14:12	2:58
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	22:59	3:02
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	19:08	0:32
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	16:40	0:30
T. Hertl	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:32	2:50
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	15:25	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:44	0:51
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	10:53	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	7	10:26	0:00
R. Lavoie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:22	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	21:46	0:32
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	20:13	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	2	19:50	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	19:05	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	2	18:58	0:26
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	2	16:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	27	26	1	.963	62:40	Win
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Panarin15:44A. Kempe14:38Q. Byfield14:42

Line 2T. Moore15:30A. Laferriere14:09E. Haula14:41

Line 3J. Armia11:20J. Wright10:24S. Laughton13:03

Line 4C. Perry11:10A. Lee10:28S. Helenius9:05

Pair 1M. Anderson19:49C. Ceci19:22

Pair 2D. Doughty20:18B. Dumoulin17:02

Pair 3B. Clarke13:35J. Edmundson13:55

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev17:56J. Eichel16:59M. Stone14:03

Line 2W. Karlsson13:45M. Marner15:24B. Howden14:10

Line 3T. Hertl11:47T. Connelly10:20R. Lavoie9:04

Line 4N. Dowd9:24M. Gatcomb10:45B. Bowman11:46

Pair 1B. McNabb18:41S. Theodore20:11

Pair 2P. Wotherspoon16:35R. Andersson16:50

Pair 3N. Hanifin17:17J. Lauzon13:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 20 overs hit (55%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
LAK A. Kempe	2.5	-118	+105	3	Over
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	+118	-140	2	Under
LAK A. Panarin	2.5	-110	-105	5	Over
VGK J. Eichel	2.5	-145	+125	4	Over
VGK M. Marner	2.5	+135	-145	3	Over
LAK Q. Byfield	2.5	+142	-150	3	Over
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	+140	-154	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	-105	-114	3	Over
VGK B. Howden	1.5	+125	-190	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	1.5	+100	-120	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	+110	-140	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	1.5	-185	+150	1	Under
VGK N. Hanifin	1.5	+130	-160	2	Over
VGK R. Andersson	1.5	-110	-120	2	Over
VGK R. Lavoie	1.5	+150	-165	1	Under
LAK S. Laughton	1.5	-105	-110	2	Over
VGK S. Theodore	1.5	-115	+108	1	Under
VGK T. Connelly	1.5	-115	-115	6	Over
LAK T. Moore	1.5	-130	+125	1	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	1.5	-140	+120	3	Over

3 of 35 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+310	-390	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+210	-250	1	Over
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+340	-550	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
LAK C. Ceci	0.5	+2500	-5000	0	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+850	-2800	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+575	-900	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+180	-210	0	Under
VGK J. Lauzon	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
LAK J. Wright	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
LAK M. Anderson	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
VGK M. Gatcomb	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+200	-240	1	Over
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
VGK N. Dowd	0.5	+800	-2800	0	Under
VGK N. Hanifin	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
VGK P. Wotherspoon	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
VGK R. Lavoie	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under
LAK S. Laughton	0.5	+600	-750	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+370	-600	1	Over
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+240	-285	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+380	-650	0	Under

5 of 33 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+165	-190	1	Over
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+210	-220	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	-105	-105	0	Under
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+160	-220	1	Over
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+390	-550	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
LAK C. Ceci	0.5	+650	-1100	0	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+380	-575	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+350	-525	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+330	-425	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	-135	+120	0	Under
VGK J. Lauzon	0.5	+750	-1400	0	Under
LAK M. Anderson	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
VGK M. Gatcomb	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	-135	+100	1	Over
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+110	-130	2	Over
VGK N. Dowd	0.5	+650	-1100	0	Under
VGK N. Hanifin	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
VGK P. Wotherspoon	0.5	+380	-550	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+165	-205	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
VGK R. Lavoie	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+185	-210	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+260	-275	1	Over
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+175	-210	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+255	-285	0	Under

6 of 31 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
VGK J. Eichel	1.5	+180	-190	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	1.5	+175	-230	2	Over
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	-154	+130	1	Over
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+115	-120	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	-200	+180	1	Over
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+235	-330	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+125	-150	1	Over
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
LAK C. Ceci	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+230	-330	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+200	-260	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+115	-125	0	Under
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
VGK J. Lauzon	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
LAK M. Anderson	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
VGK M. Gatcomb	0.5	+390	-575	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	-200	+165	2	Over
VGK N. Dowd	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
VGK N. Hanifin	0.5	+240	-330	0	Under
VGK P. Wotherspoon	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	-115	+115	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+165	-225	0	Under
VGK R. Lavoie	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+135	-150	2	Over
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	-120	+105	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+175	-195	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under

6 of 14 overs hit (43%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+325	-375	1	Over
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+260	-260	1	Over
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+250	-425	1	Over
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+150	-165	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+160	-180	2	Over
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+180	-225	2	Over
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+350	-550	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+325	-600	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+220	-375	2	Over
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
LAK D. Kuemper	26.5	-106	-120	30	Over
VGK C. Hart	22.5	-115	-115	26	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
VGK B. McNabb	1.5	-180	+130	2	Over
VGK S. Theodore	1.5	+100	-140	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.7, VGK 3.3	LAK 1, VGK 2
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	LAK 25.5, VGK 28.7	LAK 27, VGK 32
Win chance	VGK 59%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	4	1.23	0	30%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.7	3	0.88	1	34%	0
LAK A. Panarin	2.6	5	1.10	1	33%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.4	2	0.56	0	21%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.4	3	1.19	2	30%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.3	1	0.51	0	21%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.3	3	0.66	0	24%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.2	1	1.04	2	31%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	0	0.69	0	24%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.0	3	0.63	0	22%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	1	0.67	0	13%	0
VGK T. Connelly	1.7	6	0.47	2	16%	1
LAK E. Haula	1.6	2	0.41	0	17%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.6	3	0.43	1	8%	0
VGK R. Andersson	1.6	2	0.39	0	10%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	0	0.60	0	20%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	0	0.49	0	22%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.5	2	0.30	0	14%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.4	2	0.37	0	8%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.2	0	0.42	0	13%	0
LAK J. Wright	1.2	3	0.15	0	7%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.1	0	0.28	0	13%	0
VGK M. Gatcomb	1.1	5	0.20	0	11%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	0	0.30	0	5%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	0	0.19	0	3%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.0	1	0.29	0	14%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.0	2	0.14	0	3%	0
LAK D. Doughty	0.9	0	0.32	0	7%	0
LAK A. Lee	0.9	1	0.19	0	9%	0
VGK P. Wotherspoon	0.8	0	0.28	0	3%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.8	2	0.25	0	11%	0
VGK R. Lavoie	0.8	1	0.10	0	7%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.7	0	0.20	0	4%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.7	0	0.14	0	3%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	0	0.13	0	7%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.6	1	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.