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Game Recap
MIN4
OTT1
MIN beat OTT 4-1, with the chances close: 2.79 expected goals to 2.87. OTT outshot MIN 34 to 23. R. Hartman led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Greig had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Wallstedt stopped 33 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| OTT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 9:45MINJ. Brodin0.01 xG
- 1st 15:35MINR. Hartman0.16 xG
- 2nd 15:31MINR. Hartman0.15 xG
- 3rd 12:46MINJ. Middleton0.17 xG
- 3rd 16:43OTTD. Batherson0.29 xG
Team Stats
MINOTT
23Shots on goal34
2.79Expected goals2.87
48Shot attempts59
185v5 shots on goal30
0/1Power play0/2
30Hits18
13Blocked shots11
16Penalty minutes14
10Giveaways14
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.79 xGOTT 2.87 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:51 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:28 | 0:06 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:56 | 2:00 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:50 | 2:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 2:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:00 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 26:01 | 2:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 10 | 20:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:05 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wallstedt | 34 | 33 | 1 | .971 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 2:34 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 2:24 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:39 | 1:33 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:59 | 2:31 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:30 | 2:25 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 1:32 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13:05 | 0:06 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:39 | 1:29 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:58 |
| L. Thomson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:55 | 2:23 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:51 | 1:37 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:51 | 0:28 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Crotty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 23 | 19 | 4 | .826 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1M. Zuccarello14:24K. Kaprizov14:59R. Hartman14:22
Line 2J. Ek13:49M. Boldy13:41M. Johansson13:16
Line 3Y. Trenin14:28V. Tarasenko13:00D. Yurov12:41
Line 4N. Foligno11:20M. McCarron12:08M. Foligno10:54
Pair 2Z. Bogosian14:08J. Middleton18:53
Pair 3J. Spurgeon12:55J. Brodin16:04
OTT
Line 1B. Tkachuk14:28R. Greig14:51D. Cozens13:57
Line 3D. Batherson11:41T. Stützle12:31F. Zetterlund8:41
Line 4L. Eller11:32W. Foegele11:10N. Cousins12:59
Pair 1A. Zub20:26J. Sanderson19:45
Pair 2J. Spence20:54N. Matinpalo15:47
Pair 3C. Crotty14:19L. Thomson15:21
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.0, OTT 3.3 | MIN 4, OTT 1 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 25.9, OTT 30.9 | MIN 23, OTT 34 |
| Win chance | OTT 54% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.7 | 7 | 0.82 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 2.9 | 2 | 1.08 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.7 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.4 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.4 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.3 | 1 | 0.94 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| MIN Q. Hughes | 2.3 | 2 | 1.04 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 2.1 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 3 | 0.53 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 1.9 | 3 | 0.77 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.7 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 6 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.5 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT W. Foegele | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN M. McCarron | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| OTT L. Thomson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT L. Eller | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN N. Foligno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.