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Game Recap
MIN4
FinalTue, Nov 3, 2026Every game that night
PHI2

MIN beat PHI 4-2, with the chances close: 2.96 expected goals to 3.28. M. Boldy led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Wallstedt stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MIN2114
PHI0112
  1. 1st 4:06MINM. Boldy0.05 xG
  2. 1st 4:37MINM. McCarron0.17 xG
  3. 2nd 0:42MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.20 xG
  4. 2nd 14:24PHIT. Foerster0.08 xG
  5. 3rd 1:48PHID. BarkeyPP0.20 xG
  6. 3rd 18:36MIND. YurovEN0.52 xG

Team Stats

MINPHI
22Shots on goal25
2.96Expected goals3.28
51Shot attempts63
175v5 shots on goal21
0/3Power play1/3
24Hits16
17Blocked shots17
6Penalty minutes16
15Giveaways18
4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.96 xGPHI 3.28 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdMIN goal, 4:06MIN goal, 4:37MIN goal, 0:42PHI goal, 14:24PHI goal, 1:48MIN goal, 18:36

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN22 on goal, 4 scored
PHI24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. BoldyLW112400+2220:154:57
K. KaprizovLW011100+2021:294:54
J. Eriksson EkC101402+2219:174:34
D. YurovRW101300+1015:361:03
B. ColemanLW0111210015:041:26
B. BrinkRW011241+1014:131:06
M. McCarronC101141+1013:440:00
M. ShabanovRW0001110018:074:58
Y. TreninC0001500014:440:00
R. HartmanRW0000100011:321:02
N. SturmC0000200010:250:00
T. PitlickC000032006:370:00
Q. HughesD011103+1029:475:10
J. BrodinD011103+1223:310:00
O. MaattaD011201+3018:040:00
Z. BogosianD000000+2017:540:00
D. SpacekD000001-1012:380:50
M. KierstedD0000210012:050:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Wallstedt25232.92060:00Win
C. Pickard000–0:00

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. ZegrasC011011-31020:014:10
M. MichkovRW011400-2016:204:15
T. FoersterRW101300+1015:580:49
D. BarkeyC101231+1213:283:28
P. MartoneRW011100-2013:103:28
T. KonecnyRW000000-2020:561:30
C. DvorakC000300-2019:221:24
S. CouturierC0000100014:010:00
N. CatesLW000003-2012:280:00
O. TippettRW0002200012:200:29
C. KnubleRW0001100011:580:00
N. AcciariC0001100010:500:00
J. DrysdaleD011001-2026:503:30
T. SanheimD000212-1025:020:00
C. YorkD000101-1018:290:16
O. BonkD000111-1015:551:31
N. SeelerD0002260415:310:00
S. BenoitD0002310012:480:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Vladar21183.85758:33Loss
J. Woll000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov16:05M. Boldy14:16J. Ek14:42
Line 2D. Yurov13:09M. Shabanov13:09Y. Trenin12:51
Line 3B. Coleman10:28M. McCarron10:01B. Brink12:10
Line 4R. Hartman10:30N. Sturm8:49T. Pitlick6:37
Pair 1Q. Hughes23:40J. Brodin20:05
Pair 2Z. Bogosian14:45O. Maatta14:19
Pair 3M. Kiersted10:31D. Spacek11:48

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny17:46T. Zegras14:24C. Dvorak15:10
Line 2D. Barkey10:00T. Foerster13:31O. Tippett11:51
Line 3M. Michkov10:46N. Cates9:58P. Martone9:12
Line 4S. Couturier9:20N. Acciari8:15C. Knuble11:58
Pair 1T. Sanheim21:33J. Drysdale20:43
Pair 2C. York14:48O. Bonk14:16
Pair 3N. Seeler14:07S. Benoit10:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 27 overs hit (30%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
MIN K. Kaprizov3.5+110-1351Under
MIN M. Boldy3.5+100-1204Over
MIN J. Ek2.5-140+1204Over
PHI O. Tippett2.5+146-1802Under
MIN Q. Hughes2.5+120-1301Under
MIN B. Brink1.5+110–2Over
MIN B. Coleman1.5-160+1401Under
PHI C. Dvorak1.5+115-1243Over
PHI C. Knuble1.5+170–1Under
PHI C. York1.5+150–1Under
PHI D. Barkey1.5+160–2Over
MIN J. Brodin1.5+115–1Under
PHI J. Drysdale1.5-105-1400Under
MIN M. McCarron1.5+125-1481Under
PHI M. Michkov1.5-145+1164Over
MIN M. Shabanov1.5+110-1301Under
PHI N. Acciari1.5+160–1Under
PHI N. Cates1.5+140–0Under
PHI O. Bonk1.5+135-1601Under
PHI P. Martone1.5-138+1151Under
MIN R. Hartman1.5-120–0Under
PHI S. Couturier1.5-110–0Under
PHI T. Foerster1.5-118+1053Over
PHI T. Konecny1.5-125+1050Under
PHI T. Sanheim1.5+115-1522Over
PHI T. Zegras1.5-140+1150Under
MIN Y. Trenin1.5+155–1Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamBobby Brink MIN Faces PHI, his team until Mar 20261 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMIN 3.3, PHI 2.7MIN 4, PHI 2
Total goals6.16
Shots on goalMIN 28.5, PHI 25.6MIN 22, PHI 25
Win chanceMIN 59%MIN won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MIN M. Boldy3.441.00236%1
MIN K. Kaprizov3.011.17143%0
MIN J. Ek2.840.73127%1
PHI O. Tippett2.420.56025%0
MIN Q. Hughes2.311.07117%0
MIN B. Coleman2.110.45121%0
PHI M. Michkov2.040.67125%0
PHI T. Zegras1.900.70123%0
PHI T. Foerster1.930.46123%1
PHI P. Martone1.910.55120%0
PHI T. Konecny1.800.70023%0
PHI C. Knuble1.710.35017%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.630.53019%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.600.43111%0
MIN R. Hartman1.500.39017%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.520.44012%0
PHI S. Couturier1.500.40014%0
MIN J. Brodin1.410.3316%0
MIN M. McCarron1.410.26112%1
MIN M. Shabanov1.310.47016%0
PHI O. Bonk1.310.4708%0
MIN D. Yurov1.230.36116%1
PHI C. York1.210.3008%0
MIN B. Brink1.220.39114%0
PHI N. Cates1.200.38014%0
PHI N. Acciari1.210.25012%0
PHI D. Barkey1.120.46115%1
MIN Y. Trenin1.010.24011%0
PHI N. Seeler1.020.1704%0
MIN Z. Bogosian0.900.1604%0
MIN O. Maatta0.820.2915%0
PHI S. Benoit0.820.1003%0
MIN N. Sturm0.800.2109%0
MIN T. Pitlick0.800.1307%0
MIN M. Kiersted0.800.1703%0
MIN D. Spacek0.700.0902%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.