Game Recap: MIN 6, TOR 3, January 19, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN6

FinalMon, Jan 19, 2026Every game that night

TOR3

MIN beat TOR 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.46 expected goals to 3.12. MIN outshot TOR 39 to 30. M. Foligno scored three for MIN. M. Foligno had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. F. Gustavsson stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	2	3	1	6
TOR	1	0	2	3

1st 4:45MINV. TarasenkoPP0.18 xG
1st 10:29MINR. Hartman0.27 xG
1st 18:24TORJ. TavaresPP0.16 xG
2nd 6:53MINM. Foligno0.03 xG
2nd 8:24MINV. Tarasenko0.13 xG
2nd 19:14MINM. FolignoPP0.12 xG
3rd 6:27TORN. Robertson0.20 xG
3rd 15:02TORA. Matthews0.29 xG
3rd 17:22MINM. FolignoEN0.88 xG

Team Stats

MINTOR

39Shots on goal30

4.46Expected goals3.12

72Shot attempts54

295v5 shots on goal24

2/3Power play1/4

21Hits23

13Blocked shots15

8Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways11

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 4.46 xGTOR 3.12 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN39 on goal, 6 scored

TOR30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Tarasenko	RW	2	1	3	4	0	1	+2	2	16:15	3:49
M. Foligno	LW	3	0	3	5	2	0	+1	0	14:13	0:49
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	2	2	5	1	0	+1	0	22:47	4:04
R. Hartman	RW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	21:52	4:04
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	21:59	4:04
D. Yurov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	15:28	0:34
N. Sturm	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	12:06	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	9	1	+1	0	15:42	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:13	0:34
H. Haight	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	9:59	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	8:00	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	7:25	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	+3	2	26:33	4:00
B. Faber	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	+4	0	24:25	0:38
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	20:28	0:34
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	19:47	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	12:49	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	12:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	30	27	3	.900	59:56	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	1	1	1	-1	0	19:38	4:52
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	19:11	5:00
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	6	1	1	-2	0	17:36	4:35
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	-2	0	14:04	1:14
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	2	12:43	1:26
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	12:42	1:27
N. Roy	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:25	0:47
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	19:22	4:52
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	15:39	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	4	6	0	-1	0	15:04	0:01
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:23	0:30
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:31	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	23:18	5:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	21:36	0:06
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	19:32	1:40
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	2	19:00	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	16:24	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	13:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	29	24	5	.828	40:00	Loss
D. Hildeby	9	9	0	1.000	19:24

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello17:55K. Kaprizov18:39R. Hartman17:45

Line 2D. Yurov12:30V. Tarasenko11:50Y. Trenin13:02

Line 3V. Hinostroza10:39H. Haight9:59M. Foligno9:12

Line 4T. Pitlick7:21N. Sturm8:05B. Jones7:23

Pair 1Q. Hughes22:29B. Faber19:14

Pair 2J. Spurgeon18:09J. Middleton14:40

Pair 3D.Jiricek12:07D. Hunt11:01

TOR

Line 1M. Maccelli13:50M. Knies13:31J. Tavares12:21

Line 2A. Matthews13:51B. McMann11:53M. Domi12:14

Line 3S. Laughton11:59S. Lorentz11:39C. Jarnkrok10:52

Line 4N. Robertson11:15E. Cowan11:17N. Roy10:24

Pair 1J. McCabe17:38B. Carlo16:32

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson17:52M. Rielly17:22

Pair 3T. Stecher14:54S. Benoit12:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.2, TOR 3.2	MIN 6, TOR 3
Total goals	6.5	9
Shots on goal	MIN 30.2, TOR 28.4	MIN 39, TOR 30
Win chance	TOR 51%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.0	1	1.09	2	44%	1
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.7	5	1.19	2	42%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.9	1	1.08	2	16%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.5	6	0.82	1	31%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.5	0	0.53	0	25%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.5	4	0.58	2	24%	1
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.4	1	0.83	1	22%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.0	0	0.72	1	25%	0
MIN B. Faber	2.0	2	0.44	2	13%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	3	0.57	0	10%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.8	4	0.48	3	19%	2
TOR M. Domi	1.8	1	0.56	1	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.7	3	0.50	0	10%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.6	1	0.58	0	18%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	1	0.37	1	17%	1
MIN D. Yurov	1.5	1	0.47	1	16%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.4	2	0.36	1	15%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	1	0.33	0	14%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.3	5	0.32	3	14%	3
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	0	0.32	0	9%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.2	3	0.22	0	5%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.2	0	0.16	0	4%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.2	1	0.38	1	14%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	4	0.26	0	10%	0
MIN N. Sturm	1.1	1	0.23	1	10%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	2	0.36	0	6%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.0	3	0.21	0	9%	0
MIN B. Jones	1.0	3	0.08	0	5%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	1	0.26	0	13%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.9	3	0.23	0	6%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.9	1	0.13	0	6%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.11	0	2%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.6	0	0.13	0	3%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	1	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.