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Game Recap
MIN5
UTA4
MIN beat UTA 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 4.10 expected goals to 3.45. MIN outshot UTA 38 to 25. M. Johansson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Spurgeon had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. F. Gustavsson stopped 21 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| UTA | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 13:46UTAK. Stenlund0.14 xG
- 2nd 14:25MINM. Khusnutdinov0.15 xG
- 2nd 15:01MINK. Kaprizov0.19 xG
- 3rd 4:42UTAC. KellerPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 5:39MINM. Johansson0.68 xG
- 3rd 9:54UTAC. KellerPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 11:45UTAJ. Välimäki0.29 xG
- 3rd 19:16MINM. Rossi0.22 xG
Team Stats
MINUTA
38Shots on goal25
4.10Expected goals3.45
74Shot attempts55
285v5 shots on goal15
0/2Power play2/3
27Hits14
13Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes4
24Giveaways30
5Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 4.10 xGUTA 3.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Johansson | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:00 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 25:45 | 2:35 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 23:07 | 2:28 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22:17 | 2:30 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:15 | 2:17 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:19 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:04 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:49 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25:14 | 0:10 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 24:08 | 2:25 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 23:43 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:07 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 63:51 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 21:58 | 3:17 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 3:09 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:00 | 3:17 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:21 | 3:09 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:00 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:08 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:50 | 3:17 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 28:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:53 | 0:08 |
| R. Bortuzzo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 38 | 34 | 4 | .895 | 64:41 | OT loss |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.1, UTA 3.0 | MIN 5, UTA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 28.9, UTA 28.8 | MIN 38, UTA 25 |
| Win chance | MIN 51% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.3 | 3 | 1.20 | 1 | 43% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.0 | 6 | 0.84 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.4 | 4 | 0.85 | 2 | 29% | 2 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.2 | 0 | 0.67 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.0 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.8 | 0 | 0.64 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.6 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.6 | 5 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 3 | 15% | 1 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.4 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.3 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 1.0 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 1.0 | 4 | 0.24 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.0 | 4 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 4 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA R. Bortuzzo | 0.5 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.