Game Recap: MIN 2, UTA 5, February 27, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN2

FinalFri, Feb 27, 2026Every game that night

UTA5

UTA beat MIN 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.26 expected goals to 2.70. UTA outshot MIN 37 to 23. C. Keller led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Boldy had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. K. Vejmelka stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	0	1	1	2
UTA	1	2	2	5

1st 13:23UTAL. CooleySH0.32 xG
2nd 4:26UTAC. Keller0.19 xG
2nd 7:49UTAL. Crouse0.13 xG
2nd 14:03MINK. KaprizovPP0.17 xG
3rd 1:19UTAB. HaytonPP0.35 xG
3rd 12:48UTAL. Crouse0.08 xG
3rd 14:05MINM. Boldy0.17 xG

Team Stats

MINUTA

23Shots on goal37

2.70Expected goals4.26

48Shot attempts70

175v5 shots on goal28

1/3Power play1/3

18Hits12

19Blocked shots8

8Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways15

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.70 xGUTA 4.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN23 on goal, 2 scored

UTA35 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	1	1	2	7	1	4	+1	0	17:41	3:26
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-2	0	21:00	3:32
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	2	1	2	-2	0	17:31	3:25
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	15:24	1:29
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:18	1:30
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	4	0	2	-3	0	17:40	2:09
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	15:24	0:15
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:24	0:52
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	4	12:34	0:15
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:13	0:00
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:25	2:02
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	9:55	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	25:15	3:31
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	23:26	1:24
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	18:48	1:30
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	-1	0	18:17	0:15
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	2	17:17	0:15
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	37	32	5	.865	60:00	Loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	1	2	3	2	0	1	+1	0	16:41	4:29
N. Schmaltz	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	2	16:19	4:19
L. Crouse	LW	2	0	2	5	3	0	+2	0	15:33	1:29
J. McBain	C	0	2	2	1	1	1	+2	0	14:35	0:00
B. Hayton	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	15:53	4:25
L. Cooley	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	+2	0	15:51	1:23
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	17:25	4:29
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:44	1:19
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:03	0:00
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:19	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	12:08	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:50	1:20
M. Sergachev	D	0	2	2	5	2	0	+2	0	25:05	3:35
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	18:53	2:12
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	0	20:36	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:35	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:29	0:00
O. Määttä	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	23	21	2	.913	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello14:06K. Kaprizov17:28R. Hartman15:31

Line 2V. Tarasenko12:48D. Yurov12:59Y. Trenin12:05

Line 3M. Johansson12:52M. Boldy11:40J. Ek7:29

Line 4M. Foligno11:20V. Hinostroza9:55N. Sturm8:47

Pair 1Q. Hughes21:42B. Faber18:56

Pair 2Z. Bogosian15:08D. Hunt12:51

Pair 3J. Spurgeon14:45J. Middleton14:48

UTA

Line 1K. Yamamoto12:19J. Peterka15:25B. Hayton11:28

Line 2L. Cooley14:00D. Guenther12:50J. McBain12:38

Line 3L. Crouse11:08C. Keller12:12N. Schmaltz10:56

Line 4A. Kerfoot10:41K. Stenlund12:42M. Carcone10:30

Pair 1J. Marino18:35N. Schmidt16:20

Pair 2M. Sergachev18:47S. Durzi16:41

Pair 3I. Cole15:07O. Määttä12:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.0, UTA 3.4	MIN 2, UTA 5
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	MIN 26.7, UTA 30.7	MIN 23, UTA 37
Win chance	UTA 57%	UTA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.2	2	1.08	1	40%	1
UTA D. Guenther	3.2	4	0.87	0	33%	0
MIN M. Boldy	2.9	7	0.88	2	31%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.7	2	1.00	3	31%	1
MIN Q. Hughes	2.7	2	0.92	0	12%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.6	3	0.93	2	30%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.5	0	0.62	0	23%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	2.2	5	0.71	2	13%	0
UTA B. Hayton	2.1	3	0.54	1	19%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	4	0.47	0	21%	0
UTA L. Crouse	2.0	5	0.53	2	25%	2
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	3	0.69	1	26%	1
MIN B. Faber	1.9	0	0.39	0	10%	0
UTA J. Peterka	1.9	3	0.64	0	25%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	1.9	2	0.73	1	21%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.8	2	0.43	0	20%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.7	1	0.45	1	19%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.7	1	0.43	1	9%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.4	1	0.39	2	14%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.3	0	0.42	1	14%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.2	1	0.29	0	8%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.2	1	0.30	0	6%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	0	0.24	0	12%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	0	0.34	0	15%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	1	0.28	0	13%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.1	0	0.37	0	13%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	1	0.24	0	5%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	1	0.24	0	12%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	0.9	1	0.27	0	10%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.9	0	0.38	0	5%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.9	2	0.22	0	3%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	0.8	1	0.16	0	7%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
UTA O. Määttä	0.7	0	0.16	0	3%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	1	0.12	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.