Game Recap: MIN 3, UTA 1, October 27, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN3

FinalTue, Oct 27, 2026Every game that night

UTA1

MIN beat UTA 3-1, with the chances close: 2.61 expected goals to 2.69. K. Kaprizov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Trocheck had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Wallstedt stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	0	1	2	3
UTA	0	0	1	1

2nd 15:04MINJ. Eriksson EkPP0.11 xG
3rd 0:48MINK. KaprizovPP0.03 xG
3rd 11:44MINM. Shabanov0.21 xG
3rd 18:39UTAL. Cooley0.40 xG

Team Stats

MINUTA

30Shots on goal27

2.61Expected goals2.69

64Shot attempts63

225v5 shots on goal19

2/7Power play0/4

24Hits22

21Blocked shots20

23Penalty minutes29

11Giveaways10

5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.61 xGUTA 2.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN31 on goal, 3 scored

UTA27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	1	2	4	2	1	-1	0	24:36	6:48
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	5	22:04	6:46
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	-1	2	21:21	6:05
M. Shabanov	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:45	5:58
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	15:29	1:50
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	7	13:31	1:23
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	0	12:59	1:20
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	5	12:49	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	+1	2	12:45	0:00
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:34	2:11
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	11:15	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	6:43	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	2	0	3	0	0	29:54	7:22
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	24:25	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	23:21	0:49
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	14:46	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:01	0:13
M. Kiersted	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Cooley	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:39	3:43
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:27	3:48
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	6	21:50	3:09
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	4	3	0	+1	0	20:46	3:41
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	+1	5	15:25	0:00
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	13:13	0:00
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:10	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	4	12:47	0:05
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:25	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:59	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:52	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	5	7:09	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	5	24:10	2:42
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	2	4	4	0	2	22:06	1:03
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	19:35	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:27	0:03
D. Simashev	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:32	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:45	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	30	27	3	.900	57:22	Loss
S. Cossa	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1J. Ek12:28K. Kaprizov13:29M. Boldy11:22

Line 2B. Coleman11:05M. McCarron9:58B. Brink9:55

Line 3Y. Trenin12:07M. Shabanov7:47D. Yurov9:15

Line 4T. Pitlick6:43R. Hartman11:16N. Sturm9:57

Pair 1O. Maatta17:49J. Brodin16:35

Pair 2Q. Hughes19:48J. Spurgeon8:05

Pair 3Z. Bogosian12:01M. Kiersted9:40

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz11:20C. Keller15:54L. Crouse8:59

Line 2K. Yamamoto9:56B. Hayton11:18A. Lee10:21

Line 3D. Guenther12:51L. Cooley12:47V. Trocheck8:59

Line 4K. Stenlund7:33J. McBain8:21L. O'Brien7:09

Pair 1M. Weegar15:16M. Sergachev12:48

Pair 2N. Schmidt13:49A. Peeke15:42

Pair 3N. DeSimone13:01D. Simashev13:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 17 overs hit (59%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+130	-155	4	Over
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	+120	-140	2	Under
UTA C. Keller	2.5	+110	-120	3	Over
UTA D. Guenther	2.5	-170	+125	4	Over
MIN J. Ek	2.5	+100	-108	4	Over
UTA M. Sergachev	2.5	+160	-192	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.5	+134	-160	3	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	+130	-155	2	Under
UTA A. Lee	1.5	-175	+142	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	1.5	-130	+110	5	Over
UTA B. Hayton	1.5	-125	+100	3	Over
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	+160	-205	0	Under
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.5	+120	-140	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	1.5	-155	+135	3	Over
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	-115	-115	1	Under
UTA M. Weegar	1.5	-155	+135	2	Over
UTA V. Trocheck	1.5	-110	-115	5	Over

4 of 36 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
UTA A. Peeke	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+525	-750	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+450	-650	0	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+170	-210	0	Under
UTA D. Simashev	0.5	+1500	–	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+1500	-5000	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+240	-275	1	Over
UTA J. McBain	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+115	-150	1	Over
UTA K. Stenlund	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.5	+425	-600	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+250	-275	1	Over
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+425	-600	0	Under
UTA L. O'Brien	0.5	+900	-2800	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+160	-210	0	Under
MIN M. Kiersted	0.5	+2200	–	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+700	–	0	Under
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+380	-700	1	Over
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+950	-1200	0	Under
UTA N. DeSimone	0.5	+1900	-10000	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+210	-220	0	Under
UTA N. Schmidt	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
MIN N. Sturm	0.5	+1000	-3500	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+1900	-5000	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+480	-750	0	Under
MIN T. Pitlick	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+350	-475	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+2000	-10000	0	Under

5 of 22 overs hit (23%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+350	-525	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+290	-400	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+300	-390	0	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+290	-350	0	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	-113	+100	0	Under
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+160	-165	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+320	-650	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+170	-205	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	-110	-120	1	Over
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+320	-600	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+105	-125	1	Over
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	-105	-105	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+210	-225	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+126	-155	1	Over
UTA N. Schmidt	0.5	+250	-400	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-160	+140	2	Over
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+215	-250	0	Under

8 of 21 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	1.5	+148	-165	2	Over
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+160	-190	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+170	-220	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+150	-165	0	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	-220	+180	0	Under
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	-160	+135	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+200	-280	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+235	-300	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-120	+110	1	Over
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+210	-280	0	Under
UTA K. Yamamoto	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	-150	+125	1	Over
UTA L. Crouse	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-220	+170	1	Over
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	-145	+115	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+135	-165	1	Over
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+154	-170	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	-160	+140	1	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-225	+190	2	Over
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+112	-130	0	Under

4 of 18 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
UTA A. Lee	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
UTA B. Hayton	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
UTA C. Keller	0.5	+145	-215	0	Under
UTA D. Guenther	0.5	+185	-225	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+300	-600	1	Over
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+165	-250	2	Over
UTA L. Cooley	0.5	+200	-280	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+150	-225	1	Over
UTA M. Sergachev	0.5	+200	-225	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
UTA M. Weegar	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
UTA N. Schmaltz	0.5	+220	-375	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+150	-225	2	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
UTA V. Trocheck	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
MIN J. Wallstedt	26.5	-108	-115	26	Under
UTA K. Vejmelka	23.5	-125	+100	27	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
UTA M. Weegar	2.5	+115	-160	4	Over
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	-155	+110	1	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	-175	+125	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.2, UTA 3.2	MIN 3, UTA 1
Total goals	6.4	4
Shots on goal	MIN 27.1, UTA 28.9	MIN 30, UTA 27
Win chance	UTA 50%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	2	1.03	1	36%	0
UTA D. Guenther	2.9	4	0.82	0	31%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	2.9	4	1.18	2	43%	1
MIN J. Ek	2.8	4	0.76	1	28%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.4	3	0.93	0	27%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	3	0.77	1	26%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.2	2	1.00	2	13%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	2.1	0	0.73	1	13%	0
UTA A. Lee	2.0	0	0.43	0	20%	0
MIN B. Coleman	2.0	5	0.46	0	21%	0
UTA M. Weegar	2.0	2	0.44	0	10%	0
UTA L. Cooley	1.9	3	0.78	1	28%	1
UTA L. Crouse	1.7	1	0.45	0	21%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	3	0.37	0	14%	0
UTA V. Trocheck	1.6	5	0.59	0	20%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.5	0	0.43	0	17%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.4	0	0.37	0	8%	0
MIN R. Hartman	1.4	4	0.37	0	16%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.3	2	0.28	0	12%	0
MIN M. Shabanov	1.2	2	0.47	1	15%	1
MIN D. Yurov	1.2	0	0.40	0	17%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.2	0	0.29	0	7%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.2	2	0.28	0	5%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.1	1	0.39	0	14%	0
UTA A. Peeke	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	0	0.27	0	11%	0
UTA D. Simashev	1.1	1	0.15	0	5%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	0	0.25	0	11%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	0.9	1	0.26	0	11%	0
MIN M. Kiersted	0.9	0	0.20	0	3%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	0.9	1	0.13	0	5%	0
MIN O. Maatta	0.9	0	0.30	0	5%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	1	0.15	0	3%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	0	0.22	0	9%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.8	1	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.