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Game Recap
MIN2
VGK4
VGK beat MIN 4-2, with the chances close: 2.63 expected goals to 1.92. B. Howden led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Hill stopped 18 of 20.
Team Stats
MINVGK
20Shots on goal27
1.92Expected goals2.63
70Shot attempts63
205v5 shots on goal24
0/1Power play2/2
54Hits29
16Blocked shots25
4Penalty minutes2
9Giveaways7
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 1.92 xGVGK 2.63 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:32 | 1:40 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:57 | 1:26 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:33 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:06 | 1:27 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:02 | 1:47 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:34 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:20 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:56 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27:57 | 0:13 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 25:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:15 | 0:22 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 0:00 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 1:38 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 59:11 | Loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Howden | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:09 |
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:15 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:06 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:09 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:57 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:57 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:51 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:19 | 1:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:03 | 1:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 0:06 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20:20 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.6, VGK 3.4 | MIN 2, VGK 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 24.6, VGK 31.3 | MIN 20, VGK 27 |
| Win chance | VGK 64% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.5 | 1 | 1.12 | 2 | 41% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.3 | 2 | 0.88 | 2 | 30% | 2 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.3 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.1 | 2 | 1.05 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.1 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.3 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.3 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.2 | 4 | 0.69 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.0 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.9 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 1.8 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.8 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.7 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.7 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.6 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.6 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.6 | 4 | 0.47 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.4 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.