MIN beat VGK 5-2, with the chances close: 2.48 expected goals to 2.87. VGK outshot MIN 32 to 17. K. Kaprizov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Hanifin had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. F. Gustavsson stopped 30 of 32.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.48 xGVGK 2.87 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 19:55 | 1:09 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 20:49 | 1:07 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:20 | 0:52 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:01 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:17 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:34 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 19:14 | 1:09 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:50 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:01 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:01 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:42 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:15 | 0:12 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 26:21 | 0:17 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 21:40 | 0:41 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:00 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:45 | 1:07 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hertl | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:46 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 2 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.5, VGK 3.4 | MIN 5, VGK 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 24.2, VGK 31.1 | MIN 17, VGK 32 |
| Win chance | VGK 64% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.4 | 4 | 1.12 | 3 | 40% | 2 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.3 | 2 | 0.88 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.2 | 5 | 0.65 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.1 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.0 | 0 | 1.02 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.2 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.2 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.2 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.0 | 5 | 0.53 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 1.9 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.7 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.6 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.6 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.3 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.