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Game Recap
MIN2
VGK3
VGK beat MIN 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.18 expected goals to 1.81. VGK outshot MIN 32 to 22. J. Eichel led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Hill stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| VGK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 8:25VGKW. KarlssonSH0.16 xG
- 1st 8:38MINK. KaprizovPP0.13 xG
- 1st 13:24VGKM. Stone0.04 xG
- 3rd 3:31MINM. Boldy0.17 xG
- OT 4:05VGKB. Howden0.14 xG
Team Stats
MINVGK
22Shots on goal32
1.81Expected goals3.18
56Shot attempts78
185v5 shots on goal25
1/3Power play0/3
36Hits26
25Blocked shots15
4Penalty minutes6
11Giveaways10
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 1.81 xGVGK 3.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:17 | 3:16 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:16 | 4:01 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:11 | 4:07 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 4:03 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:32 | 2:46 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:32 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:38 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:36 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 21:11 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 26:51 | 0:52 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 24:00 | 2:24 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:17 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 40:00 | |
| M. Fleury | 7 | 6 | 1 | .857 | 24:05 | Loss |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:30 | 5:36 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:26 | 5:06 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:17 |
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:46 | 0:00 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:53 | 5:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:32 | 5:02 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:03 | 0:52 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:59 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 1:01 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:04 | 5:32 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:34 | 0:28 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:01 | 0:07 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:06 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.6, VGK 3.5 | MIN 2, VGK 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 24.2, VGK 32.3 | MIN 22, VGK 32 |
| Win chance | VGK 64% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.5 | 5 | 1.19 | 1 | 42% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.5 | 3 | 0.98 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.5 | 5 | 1.13 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.4 | 5 | 0.67 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.4 | 2 | 0.71 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.5 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.3 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.3 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.2 | 3 | 0.93 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.1 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 2.0 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.8 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.7 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.4 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.3 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.5 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.