Game Recap: MIN 4, VGK 2, March 6, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

MIN4

FinalFri, Mar 6, 2026Every game that night

VGK2

MIN beat VGK 4-2, with the chances close: 3.46 expected goals to 3.11. P. Dorofeyev led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Sissons had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. F. Gustavsson stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	0	3	1	4
VGK	0	0	2	2

2nd 5:18MINM. Zuccarello0.20 xG
2nd 8:07MINZ. Bogosian0.07 xG
2nd 8:25MINM. McCarron0.09 xG
3rd 2:17VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.12 xG
3rd 15:42MINV. Tarasenko0.11 xG
3rd 16:55VGKM. Marner0.25 xG

Team Stats

MINVGK

24Shots on goal31

3.46Expected goals3.11

58Shot attempts61

225v5 shots on goal29

0/1Power play1/1

22Hits14

10Blocked shots18

26Penalty minutes16

10Giveaways13

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.46 xGVGK 3.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN24 on goal, 4 scored

VGK30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McCarron	C	1	1	2	1	3	0	+1	2	10:41	0:00
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:52	1:41
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	12:58	0:19
Y. Trenin	C	0	1	1	0	7	2	+2	0	11:53	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	10:59	0:22
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	22:46	1:35
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	20:21	1:35
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	19:37	1:38
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	16:40	0:25
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:28	0:20
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:59	0:00
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	10:39	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	27:46	1:38
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+3	0	21:37	0:02
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	17	16:41	0:25
Z. Bogosian	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	16:37	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	19:23	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	5	16:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	-1	0	18:01	0:55
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	5	0	1	-1	0	24:30	0:55
B. Bowman	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	2	19:50	0:55
M. Marner	RW	1	0	1	2	0	2	-1	0	15:55	0:55
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	14:27	0:55
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	19:30	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	14:39	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:41	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:17	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:31	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	8:39	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	5	8:09	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	23:52	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-1	0	22:57	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-2	0	20:58	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	20:54	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	9	14:37	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	24	20	4	.833	58:25	Loss
A. Hill	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello15:25K. Kaprizov18:58R. Hartman15:47

Line 2J. Ek15:44M. Boldy16:59B. Brink13:08

Line 3V. Tarasenko12:04Y. Trenin10:23D. Yurov10:37

Line 4R. Fabbri10:39N. Sturm10:04M. McCarron10:35

Pair 1Q. Hughes24:56B. Faber14:54

Pair 2J. Brodin17:10J. Spurgeon18:19

Pair 3Z. Bogosian16:35J. Middleton15:13

VGK

Line 1J. Eichel20:37I. Barbashev18:31B. Bowman17:20

Line 2C. Sissons13:47C. Smith12:53N. Dowd12:34

Line 3M. Marner11:47P. Dorofeyev14:30R. Smith11:31

Line 4B. Saad8:16T. Hertl10:57K. Kolesar8:09

Pair 1B. McNabb20:04S. Theodore21:34

Pair 2R. Andersson18:42J. Lauzon13:50

Pair 3N. Hanifin20:20K. Korczak12:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.9, VGK 3.3	MIN 4, VGK 2
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	MIN 25.0, VGK 30.6	MIN 24, VGK 31
Win chance	VGK 56%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.3	5	1.09	1	31%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.2	1	1.18	0	41%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.9	3	0.65	2	31%	1
MIN M. Boldy	2.9	3	0.97	0	32%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.4	0	0.98	1	13%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.3	4	0.65	0	23%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.3	1	0.68	1	26%	0
VGK R. Andersson	2.1	0	0.41	0	10%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	1	0.61	0	10%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	4	0.50	0	21%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.0	2	1.01	1	26%	1
MIN M. Zuccarello	1.9	1	0.81	1	22%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	1.9	2	0.36	0	7%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.7	2	0.64	0	23%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.7	0	0.44	1	11%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.6	2	0.48	1	19%	1
MIN B. Brink	1.6	1	0.55	0	19%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.5	2	0.53	1	17%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.5	2	0.42	0	17%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.5	2	0.30	0	15%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.23	2	11%	1
VGK J. Lauzon	1.3	0	0.16	0	4%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.2	4	0.27	0	11%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.2	1	0.23	0	5%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	0	0.28	1	13%	0
MIN R. Fabbri	1.1	3	0.30	0	14%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	1	0.38	1	13%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	2	0.30	0	11%	0
VGK C. Smith	1.0	1	0.19	0	9%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.0	1	0.29	1	7%	0
VGK N. Dowd	1.0	1	0.31	0	14%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.9	0	0.21	0	3%	0
MIN J. Brodin	0.9	0	0.26	0	5%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.9	1	0.25	0	5%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.7	1	0.17	1	3%	1
MIN N. Sturm	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.