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Game Recap
MIN1
WSH5
WSH beat MIN 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.15 expected goals to 1.67. WSH outshot MIN 45 to 14. D. Strome led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). M. Fehérváry had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. L. Thompson stopped 13 of 14.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| WSH | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
- 1st 17:52WSHD. Strome0.19 xG
- 2nd 16:47MINM. Johansson0.07 xG
- 2nd 17:18WSHA. Protas0.06 xG
- 3rd 1:19WSHA. Ovechkin0.02 xG
- 3rd 11:32WSHD. Strome0.46 xG
- 3rd 18:03WSHT. WilsonPP0.10 xG
Team Stats
MINWSH
14Shots on goal45
1.67Expected goals4.15
41Shot attempts76
115v5 shots on goal34
0/2Power play1/5
18Hits23
17Blocked shots14
10Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways20
1Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 1.67 xGWSH 4.15 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:16 | 2:39 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:03 | 1:24 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:59 | 2:30 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:24 | 1:33 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 1:54 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:46 | 2:06 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 2:26 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:50 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:36 | 0:38 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 24:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:00 | 1:10 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:15 | 2:50 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 45 | 40 | 5 | .889 | 59:53 | Loss |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Strome | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:52 | 4:52 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 4:52 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:33 | 6:19 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 3:11 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:14 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 1:48 |
| S. Milano | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 4:28 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:11 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:15 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 12:32 | 3:13 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 | 4:39 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:57 | 3:40 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:10 | 3:48 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 14 | 13 | 1 | .929 | 59:51 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1M. Boldy12:37M. Rossi13:07K. Kaprizov16:22
Line 2R. Hartman14:25M. Foligno10:30Y. Trenin12:32
Line 3L. Ohgren9:06D. Yurov9:01V. Hinostroza8:58
Line 4M. Johansson12:21J. Ek11:42V. Tarasenko11:36
Pair 2J. Middleton15:07J. Spurgeon15:36
Pair 3Z. Bogosian9:47Z. Buium17:14
WSH
Line 1N. Dowd14:12J. Sourdif12:34B. Duhaime11:35
Line 2D. Strome12:58A. Beauvillier13:56A. Ovechkin10:05
Line 3R. Leonard14:12H. Lapierre11:07S. Milano10:26
Line 4A. Protas11:23C. McMichael9:12T. Wilson10:36
Pair 1J. Chychrun20:22D. Chisholm14:55
Pair 3J. Carlson14:37M. Fehérváry14:26
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.9, WSH 3.2 | MIN 1, WSH 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 27.0, WSH 28.3 | MIN 14, WSH 45 |
| Win chance | WSH 55% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.6 | 1 | 1.18 | 0 | 43% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.5 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.3 | 3 | 0.89 | 2 | 37% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.0 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.5 | 4 | 0.60 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.2 | 5 | 0.67 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.76 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.0 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.9 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 6 | 0.85 | 4 | 26% | 2 |
| MIN V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 1.5 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.4 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Buium | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.1 | 6 | 0.30 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH S. Milano | 0.9 | 5 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.7 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.