Game Recap: MIN 5, WSH 1, November 1, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN5

FinalSun, Nov 1, 2026Every game that night

WSH1

MIN beat WSH 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.97 expected goals to 3.09. B. Brink led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). B. Brink had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Wallstedt stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	2	0	3	5
WSH	0	1	0	1

1st 3:42MINQ. Hughes0.13 xG
1st 5:27MINM. McCarron0.25 xG
2nd 19:54WSHJ. Sourdif0.08 xG
3rd 17:37MINM. ShabanovPP0.12 xG
3rd 19:02MINK. KaprizovEN0.57 xG
3rd 19:35MIND. YurovPP0.26 xG

Team Stats

MINWSH

29Shots on goal27

3.97Expected goals3.09

61Shot attempts66

235v5 shots on goal24

2/5Power play0/1

22Hits24

20Blocked shots18

2Penalty minutes20

12Giveaways14

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.97 xGWSH 3.09 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN29 on goal, 5 scored

WSH27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	19:33	3:47
B. Brink	RW	0	2	2	4	2	1	+1	2	16:11	2:01
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:43	3:53
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	21:16	3:50
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	16:14	0:47
D. Yurov	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:51	1:04
M. Shabanov	RW	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	14:11	2:59
M. McCarron	C	1	0	1	1	3	2	+1	0	13:38	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	9:22	0:25
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	13:38	1:29
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	12:02	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	9:59	0:25
Q. Hughes	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	29:41	3:53
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	23:55	0:00
D. Spacek	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:27	1:29
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	+1	0	19:10	0:06
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	18:25	0:00
M. Kiersted	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	11:44	0:42

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Sourdif	C	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	0	13:04	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	10:22	0:00
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:28	0:57
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	4	1	2	-1	0	18:15	0:00
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	14	18:01	0:57
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:22	0:00
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:59	0:00
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:59	0:00
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14:56	0:57
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	13:08	0:57
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	12:18	0:00
I. Protas	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:44	0:00
C. Hutson	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	19:58	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	4	1	6	0	0	27:16	0:57
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	21:07	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	20:27	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	15:16	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	13:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	28	24	4	.857	58:52	Loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov17:33M. Boldy16:31J. Ek14:47

Line 2B. Coleman14:12B. Brink14:10M. McCarron12:31

Line 3D. Yurov12:00Y. Trenin12:02M. Shabanov10:09

Line 4T. Pitlick9:34R. Hartman12:09N. Sturm8:57

Pair 1Q. Hughes24:45J. Brodin21:47

Pair 2Z. Bogosian17:38O. Maatta17:15

Pair 3M. Kiersted10:32D. Spacek10:58

WSH

Line 1T. Wilson14:45A. Protas14:46P. Dubois15:18

Line 2A. Tuch14:00D. Strome16:23J. Kyrou13:59

Line 3B. Jenner11:53R. Leonard11:53J. Sourdif12:43

Line 4A. Ovechkin11:03A. Beauvillier9:49I. Protas8:02

Pair 1J. Ivany14:18C. Hutson18:48

Pair 2M. Roy17:39M. Fehérváry16:08

Pair 3J. Chychrun24:22T. Liljegren11:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 18 overs hit (44%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+130	-150	2	Under
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	-120	+105	3	Under
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.5	+130	-190	2	Under
WSH A. Tuch	2.5	+120	-135	4	Over
WSH J. Chychrun	2.5	-105	-115	4	Over
MIN J. Ek	2.5	-135	+120	3	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	2.5	+135	-165	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	+110	-130	3	Over
WSH R. Leonard	2.5	+138	-160	3	Over
WSH A. Protas	1.5	-115	+100	1	Under
MIN B. Brink	1.5	+115	–	4	Over
MIN B. Coleman	1.5	-174	+135	1	Under
WSH B. Jenner	1.5	+115	-150	0	Under
WSH C. Hutson	1.5	-105	-105	1	Under
WSH D. Strome	1.5	-145	+115	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	1.5	+115	-150	1	Under
WSH P. Dubois	1.5	+100	-130	3	Over
WSH T. Wilson	1.5	-165	+130	2	Over

6 of 35 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
WSH A. Beauvillier	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+340	-550	0	Under
WSH A. Protas	0.5	+460	-550	0	Under
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+350	-475	0	Under
WSH B. Jenner	0.5	+500	-600	0	Under
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
MIN D. Spacek	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
WSH D. Strome	0.5	+290	-320	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+450	-800	1	Over
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+475	-900	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	+410	-750	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+210	-240	0	Under
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+295	-475	0	Under
WSH J. Sourdif	0.5	+700	-1400	1	Over
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+110	-135	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.5	+1900	-2800	0	Under
MIN M. Kiersted	0.5	+2200	-10000	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+700	-900	1	Over
WSH M. Roy	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+425	-600	1	Over
MIN N. Sturm	0.5	+1000	-4000	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
WSH P. Dubois	0.5	+410	-475	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+425	-600	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+380	-400	0	Under
WSH T. Liljegren	0.5	+1800	-2800	0	Under
MIN T. Pitlick	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+950	-1400	0	Under
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+2000	-5000	0	Under

5 of 17 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+280	-325	0	Under
WSH A. Protas	0.5	+265	-325	0	Under
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	+215	-275	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+275	-390	2	Over
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+295	-400	1	Over
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+200	-230	1	Over
WSH D. Strome	0.5	+140	-140	0	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	+158	-180	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+150	-176	2	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+182	-190	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	-115	-110	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+110	-140	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+220	-310	0	Under
WSH P. Dubois	0.5	+195	-235	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-180	+135	0	Under
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+195	-220	0	Under

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	1.5	+150	-175	1	Under
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
WSH A. Protas	0.5	+150	-170	0	Under
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	-105	-105	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+170	-220	2	Over
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+140	-175	1	Over
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+150	-160	1	Over
WSH D. Strome	0.5	-132	+120	0	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	-104	-115	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-140	+120	2	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	-108	-105	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-205	+170	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+130	-150	1	Over
WSH P. Dubois	0.5	+115	-132	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-220	+175	1	Over
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+100	-110	0	Under

5 of 20 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+340	-450	0	Under
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+360	-800	0	Under
MIN D. Spacek	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
WSH D. Strome	0.5	+235	-295	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+270	-300	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+210	-260	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+260	-450	1	Over
WSH P. Dubois	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+155	-210	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+333	-500	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
WSH L. Thompson	25.5	-112	-110	24	Under
MIN J. Wallstedt	24.5	-125	-105	26	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
MIN J. Brodin	2.5	+100	-140	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.2, WSH 3.2	MIN 5, WSH 1
Total goals	6.4	6
Shots on goal	MIN 28.8, WSH 27.9	MIN 29, WSH 27
Win chance	WSH 51%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.6	3	0.98	1	34%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.2	2	1.15	1	41%	1
MIN J. Ek	2.9	3	0.70	2	26%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.7	4	0.65	0	21%	0
WSH A. Tuch	2.5	4	0.78	0	31%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.4	3	1.00	1	15%	1
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.2	2	0.61	0	26%	0
MIN B. Coleman	2.2	1	0.43	1	20%	0
WSH J. Kyrou	2.2	0	0.65	0	25%	0
WSH R. Leonard	2.1	3	0.52	0	19%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	2	0.72	0	28%	0
WSH B. Jenner	1.9	0	0.48	0	21%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.8	0	0.76	0	24%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.8	1	0.60	0	22%	0
WSH C. Hutson	1.8	1	0.45	1	11%	0
MIN R. Hartman	1.6	3	0.37	0	15%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.6	3	0.64	0	20%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.4	0	0.33	1	7%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.4	1	0.25	1	11%	1
MIN M. Shabanov	1.4	4	0.48	1	16%	1
MIN D. Yurov	1.3	2	0.37	1	16%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.3	1	0.25	1	12%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.2	4	0.37	2	13%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.2	2	0.37	1	15%	1
WSH M. Roy	1.2	0	0.29	0	6%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	1	0.24	0	10%	0
WSH I. Protas	1.1	1	0.38	0	11%	0
WSH T. Liljegren	1.0	0	0.23	0	6%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	0	0.35	0	8%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	0	0.16	0	4%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	0	0.21	1	9%	0
MIN O. Maatta	0.8	1	0.28	0	5%	0
MIN D. Spacek	0.8	0	0.09	1	3%	0
MIN M. Kiersted	0.8	0	0.17	0	3%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.8	1	0.10	0	5%	0
WSH J. Ivany	0.7	3	0.23	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.