Game Recap: MTL 4, CBJ 3 (OT), November 27, 2024

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Game Recap

MTL4

Final/OTWed, Nov 27, 2024Every game that night

CBJ3

MTL beat CBJ 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.01 expected goals to 2.32. Z. Werenski led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Primeau stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MTL	1	1	1	1	4
CBJ	1	1	1	0	3

1st 9:08CBJM. Olivier0.27 xG
1st 13:00MTLJ. Slafkovský0.11 xG
2nd 4:27CBJE. Chinakhov0.26 xG
2nd 6:34MTLC. CaufieldPP0.09 xG
3rd 8:24MTLE. Heineman0.07 xG
3rd 12:22CBJZ. Werenski0.02 xG
OT 0:44MTLN. Suzuki0.44 xG

Team Stats

MTLCBJ

23Shots on goal24

3.01Expected goals2.32

60Shot attempts54

175v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/3

24Hits25

14Blocked shots16

13Penalty minutes11

9Giveaways14

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.01 xGCBJ 2.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL23 on goal, 4 scored

CBJ24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	0	13:04	1:25
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:13	1:43
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	17:31	1:09
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	0	16:55	1:28
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	16:44	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	13:31	1:12
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:12	0:54
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:50	1:33
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:48	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	2	5	2	-1	2	12:44	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7	12:03	1:04
J. Roy	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:03	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+3	0	25:29	1:26
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	24:39	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	19:48	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:28	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	16:59	1:11
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	12:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Primeau	24	21	3	.875	60:43	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:54	4:11
D. Voronkov	LW	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	18:24	4:18
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	18:00	1:54
E. Chinakhov	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:43	1:46
M. Olivier	RW	1	0	1	3	6	0	+1	0	16:37	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	1	1	4	4	1	+1	0	15:57	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	21:31	4:08
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	19:14	4:17
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	17:37	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:53	0:59
K. Labanc	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:37	1:44
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	4	4:02	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	7	24:15	2:32
D. Severson	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	21:31	0:43
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	24:22	3:28
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	22:40	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	11:53	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	10:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	23	19	4	.826	59:16	OT loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Monahan CBJ Faces MTL, his team until Jan 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.9, CBJ 3.7	MTL 4, CBJ 3
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	MTL 26.5, CBJ 34.0	MTL 23, CBJ 24
Win chance	CBJ 62%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.6	3	1.10	2	18%	1
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	5	0.73	1	32%	1
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	3	0.76	0	33%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.5	1	0.84	0	28%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.3	0	0.61	1	28%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.3	0	0.62	1	23%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	2.3	1	0.59	1	24%	1
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	2	0.88	1	29%	1
MTL B. Gallagher	2.0	1	0.48	0	20%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.8	2	0.65	1	22%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.8	1	0.50	0	21%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.7	0	0.39	1	17%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.7	1	0.50	0	16%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.6	1	0.56	1	12%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.6	1	0.56	2	18%	1
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.5	4	0.31	1	16%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.5	1	0.34	0	6%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	2	0.36	0	18%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.5	1	0.43	0	17%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	2	0.49	0	20%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	0	0.45	0	8%	0
MTL J. Roy	1.4	0	0.39	0	15%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.4	1	0.37	0	9%	0
CBJ K. Labanc	1.4	1	0.40	0	14%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	3	0.36	1	15%	1
MTL C. Dvorak	1.2	3	0.43	0	16%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.2	0	0.21	0	6%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.2	0	0.29	0	14%	0
MTL E. Heineman	1.1	1	0.30	1	15%	1
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	2	0.50	1	5%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.44	1	14%	0
MTL J. Barron	1.1	1	0.25	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	1.0	0	0.23	0	3%	0
MTL J. Struble	1.0	0	0.21	0	6%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.8	1	0.31	0	5%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.7	2	0.22	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.