Game Recap: MTL 4, PHI 3, October 27, 2024

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Game Recap

MTL4

FinalSun, Oct 27, 2024Every game that night

PHI3

MTL beat PHI 4-3, with the chances close: 2.98 expected goals to 2.58. T. Sanheim led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Suzuki had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. Primeau stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	1	3	0	4
PHI	1	0	2	3

1st 10:42MTLN. Suzuki0.42 xG
1st 17:24PHIT. Sanheim0.02 xG
2nd 4:48MTLB. Gallagher0.10 xG
2nd 12:48MTLC. CaufieldPP0.08 xG
2nd 16:01MTLJ. Evans0.03 xG
3rd 17:48PHIT. Sanheim0.14 xG
3rd 18:17PHIT. Konecny0.26 xG

Team Stats

MTLPHI

24Shots on goal26

2.98Expected goals2.58

50Shot attempts66

195v5 shots on goal19

1/2Power play0/3

18Hits28

22Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways21

9Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.98 xGPHI 2.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL24 on goal, 4 scored

PHI25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	1	2	5	0	3	0	2	18:57	1:57
B. Gallagher	RW	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	14:57	0:00
J. Evans	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:07	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	16:22	1:57
K. Dach	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	16:20	1:57
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	-1	0	15:33	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:55	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:21	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:47	1:57
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	10:52	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	10:47	0:00
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	10:45	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	2	0	7	+1	0	24:58	1:57
D. Savard	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	0	0	22:15	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	1	1	2	4	0	+1	0	18:55	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	13:31	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:42	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	16:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Primeau	26	23	3	.885	60:00	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	21:27	2:29
O. Tippett	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:20	2:12
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:39	1:31
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	0	13:46	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	1	1	2	3	2	+1	0	7:47	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	5:24	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	21:33	2:38
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	20:29	1:34
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:37	1:32
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:42	2:02
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:37	2:40
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	12:41	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	2	1	3	3	0	1	+2	0	24:50	0:01
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	2	25:03	2:40
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	20:06	0:01
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	17:28	1:50
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	16:48	0:00
E. Johnson	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	11:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Kolosov	24	20	4	.833	58:10	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChristian Dvorak PHI Faces MTL, his team until Apr 20251 SOG
BirthdayRasmus Ristolainen PHI Turns 30 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.9, PHI 3.5	MTL 4, PHI 3
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	MTL 24.0, PHI 35.3	MTL 24, PHI 26
Win chance	PHI 59%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	3.6	1	0.71	1	30%	0
PHI T. Konecny	3.3	3	1.00	1	36%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	4	0.77	1	32%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.3	2	0.51	0	17%	0
PHI M. Frost	2.1	0	0.61	0	19%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	2	0.89	0	27%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	2.0	3	0.52	3	10%	2
PHI S. Laughton	2.0	1	0.54	0	20%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	2.0	1	0.45	2	19%	1
PHI T. Foerster	2.0	0	0.45	0	23%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.9	5	0.87	2	27%	1
MTL J. Armia	1.8	0	0.40	0	18%	0
PHI J. Farabee	1.8	2	0.48	1	19%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	2	0.67	1	12%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.6	1	0.52	1	17%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.6	2	0.37	0	6%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.6	0	0.35	1	18%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.4	1	0.23	0	4%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.4	3	0.41	1	17%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.4	2	0.31	1	15%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.4	1	0.27	0	4%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	0	0.50	0	19%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.2	2	0.37	0	14%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.2	0	0.24	0	7%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.1	2	0.28	0	12%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	2	0.43	1	12%	1
PHI E. Johnson	1.0	0	0.17	0	5%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.0	1	0.57	0	6%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.0	1	0.39	0	14%	0
MTL E. Heineman	0.9	2	0.26	0	14%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	2	0.21	1	5%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.8	0	0.35	1	6%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.7	0	0.09	1	5%	0
MTL M. Pezzetta	0.6	1	0.20	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.