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Game Recap
MTL3
PIT4
PIT beat MTL 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.98 expected goals to 2.95. O. Kapanen led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). O. Kapanen had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. A. Silovs stopped 22 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| PIT | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 7:31MTLO. Kapanen0.10 xG
- 1st 7:58PITS. Crosby0.38 xG
- 1st 12:40PITR. RakellPP0.44 xG
- 2nd 3:54MTLI. Demidov0.02 xG
- 2nd 11:51PITN. Acciari0.11 xG
- 3rd 4:04MTLN. Dobson0.14 xG
Team Stats
MTLPIT
25Shots on goal31
2.95Expected goals3.98
55Shot attempts75
215v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play1/3
25Hits30
18Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes6
19Giveaways15
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.95 xGPIT 3.98 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:13 | 3:35 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:56 | 3:31 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| S. Blais | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 8:32 | 0:00 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:26 | 3:37 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:04 | 3:34 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:23 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:25 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:26 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| O. Beck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 27:23 | 0:19 |
| N. Dobson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:33 | 0:31 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 28:58 | 3:39 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:29 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Engstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:44 | 3:18 |
| S. Crosby | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:53 | 3:38 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:36 | 3:36 |
| N. Acciari | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 3:39 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:41 | 1:19 |
| B. Kindel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 1:03 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:59 |
| R. McGroarty | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:26 | 1:01 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:07 | 3:27 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 23:36 | 1:10 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:51 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:00 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Silovs | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 65:00 | Win |
| S. Skinner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1A. Texier14:53J. Anderson14:15J. Veleno11:23
Line 2N. Suzuki13:56C. Caufield13:26Z. Bolduc13:05
Line 3O. Kapanen13:04J. Slafkovský14:31I. Demidov9:35
Line 4B. Gallagher10:40O. Beck10:07S. Blais8:32
Pair 1M. Matheson19:53N. Dobson19:28
Pair 2L. Hutson21:22A. Carrier17:13
Pair 3A. Xhekaj10:47A. Engstrom10:40
PIT
Line 2A. Mantha13:38J. Brazeau13:28T. Novak14:37
Line 3V. Koivunen11:47R. McGroarty12:24B. Kindel11:55
Line 4N. Acciari10:55C. Dewar10:15K. Hayes8:25
Pair 2P. Wotherspoon17:27E. Karlsson17:18
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.9, PIT 3.1 | MTL 3, PIT 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 24.8, PIT 28.2 | MTL 25, PIT 31 |
| Win chance | PIT 54% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT B. Rust | 2.9 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.8 | 2 | 1.16 | 2 | 38% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.8 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.6 | 4 | 0.81 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.4 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 2.3 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.0 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 2.0 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.9 | 0 | 0.59 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.7 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.7 | 7 | 0.47 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.7 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.7 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.7 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT R. McGroarty | 1.6 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.6 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.68 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT V. Koivunen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kulak | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL O. Beck | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Engstrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT J. Ivany | 0.8 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL S. Blais | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.