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Game Recap
MTL5
Final/OTSat, Oct 3, 2026Every game that night
PIT6

PIT beat MTL 6-5 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.45 expected goals to 3.24. N. Suzuki led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). B. Kindel had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Silovs stopped 20 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
MTL11305
PIT14016
  1. 1st 3:49MTLC. Caufield0.07 xG
  2. 1st 14:07PITE. MalkinPP0.24 xG
  3. 2nd 0:32PITD. Carlile0.07 xG
  4. 2nd 7:59PITS. Girard0.30 xG
  5. 2nd 14:01PITT. Novak0.17 xG
  6. 2nd 15:32PITB. KindelPP0.11 xG
  7. 2nd 18:46MTLN. Suzuki0.08 xG
  8. 3rd 3:31MTLC. Caufield0.15 xG
  9. 3rd 18:52MTLC. Kreider0.23 xG
  10. 3rd 19:16MTLI. Demidov0.04 xG
  11. OT 1:33PITT. Novak0.15 xG

Team Stats

MTLPIT
25Shots on goal30
3.24Expected goals3.45
68Shot attempts52
195v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play2/4
28Hits9
12Blocked shots20
10Penalty minutes8
8Giveaways12
5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.24 xGPIT 3.45 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTMTL goal, 3:49PIT goal, 14:07PIT goal, 0:32PIT goal, 7:59PIT goal, 14:01PIT goal, 15:32MTL goal, 18:46MTL goal, 3:31MTL goal, 18:52MTL goal, 19:16PIT goal, 1:33

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL24 on goal, 5 scored
PIT30 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. SuzukiC134440+4022:432:56
C. CaufieldRW202310+3022:502:56
I. DemidovRW112310+1016:032:58
C. KreiderLW112140+1014:572:04
J. SlafkovskýLW000120+2018:122:56
A. NewhookC000202-1015:431:04
J. EvansC0001210014:360:00
J. AndersonRW0003200212:100:00
K. DachC000031-2211:400:00
Z. BolducRW0000200011:311:04
P. DanaultC0000000011:240:49
A. TexierLW000111-109:141:02
L. HutsonD033301+1029:063:03
N. DobsonD011112-1423:040:57
M. MathesonD000211-2226:240:00
J. StrubleD000022+2016:090:00
A. XhekajD000020+1013:430:00
A. CarrierD000001008:320:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Dobes30246.80059:04OT loss
S. Montembeault000–0:00

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
E. MalkinC123101+2219:412:05
T. NovakC213301+2014:423:03
S. CrosbyC011210+1019:533:03
R. RakellRW011221+1218:263:02
E. ChinakhovRW0112110217:592:04
B. KindelC101520-3014:183:04
H. LapierreC011000-2011:222:00
B. LizotteC000001-1014:490:00
C. DewarC000111-2013:540:00
N. RobertsonLW000101+1013:350:00
A. KuzmenkoLW000200-2011:432:03
F. HallanderC000001009:390:00
E. KarlssonD022001+2019:383:12
K. LetangD022301+1019:301:54
S. GirardD101311-3021:110:00
D. CarlileD101303+1020:320:04
K. KorczakD011104-3017:390:00
T. van RiemsdykD000112-1218:080:01
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Silovs25205.80061:33Win
S. Murashov000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki16:08C. Caufield16:29C. Kreider12:20
Line 2J. Anderson10:57J. Evans11:27Z. Bolduc10:27
Line 3J. Slafkovský12:25I. Demidov10:57A. Newhook10:01
Line 4P. Danault8:15K. Dach10:58A. Texier8:12
Pair 1M. Matheson19:57N. Dobson18:09
Pair 2A. Carrier8:03L. Hutson21:53
Pair 3J. Struble13:07A. Xhekaj11:20

PIT

Line 1E. Malkin17:26E. Chinakhov14:40T. Novak11:32
Line 2S. Crosby14:29N. Robertson12:46R. Rakell12:13
Line 3C. Dewar9:55B. Lizotte9:55F. Hallander8:34
Line 4H. Lapierre9:10B. Kindel9:05A. Kuzmenko8:49
Pair 1S. Girard18:26K. Korczak15:15
Pair 2K. Letang15:54T. Riemsdyk13:46
Pair 3D. Carlile15:28E. Karlsson13:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 18 overs hit (44%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
MTL C. Caufield2.5-140+1103Over
PIT E. Chinakhov2.5+150-1852Under
PIT E. Karlsson2.5+130-1540Under
MTL N. Suzuki2.5+136-1704Over
PIT R. Rakell2.5+100-1202Under
PIT S. Crosby2.5+110-1402Under
MTL A. Carrier1.5+110-1400Under
MTL A. Newhook1.5-110-1152Over
PIT B. Kindel1.5-114+1055Over
MTL C. Kreider1.5-128+1151Under
PIT E. Malkin1.5-180+1501Under
MTL I. Demidov1.5-115-1053Over
MTL J. Slafkovský1.5-180+1421Under
MTL L. Hutson1.5-115+1003Over
MTL M. Matheson1.5-125+1052Over
MTL N. Dobson1.5-160+1251Under
PIT N. Robertson1.5-105-1151Under
PIT T. Novak1.5-125+1053Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 3.0, PIT 3.5MTL 5, PIT 6
Total goals6.511
Shots on goalMTL 23.7, PIT 30.2MTL 25, PIT 30
Win chancePIT 58%PIT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
PIT R. Rakell2.820.78129%0
MTL C. Caufield2.730.82233%2
PIT S. Crosby2.621.04132%0
PIT E. Karlsson2.500.82217%0
PIT E. Malkin2.310.82325%1
PIT E. Chinakhov2.120.54122%0
MTL N. Suzuki2.141.01427%1
MTL J. Slafkovský2.110.72024%0
PIT N. Robertson1.810.43021%0
MTL N. Dobson1.810.50112%0
PIT B. Kindel1.850.38116%1
MTL I. Demidov1.730.66219%1
PIT T. Novak1.730.53320%2
MTL A. Newhook1.720.52022%0
PIT F. Hallander1.600.41013%0
PIT K. Letang1.630.46210%0
MTL C. Kreider1.510.55226%1
PIT C. Dewar1.510.35015%0
MTL M. Matheson1.420.42010%0
MTL J. Anderson1.330.33017%0
MTL L. Hutson1.330.81311%0
PIT A. Kuzmenko1.320.50021%0
MTL J. Evans1.210.43014%0
MTL P. Danault1.100.40013%0
MTL A. Texier1.110.34014%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.000.34014%0
PIT B. Lizotte1.000.35014%0
PIT S. Girard1.030.3316%1
PIT H. Lapierre0.900.35110%0
MTL K. Dach0.900.27011%0
PIT D. Carlile0.930.1314%1
PIT T. Riemsdyk0.810.2504%0
MTL A. Carrier0.800.3507%0
PIT K. Korczak0.610.2112%0
MTL J. Struble0.500.1503%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.400.0702%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.