Game Recap: MTL 1, TOR 4, November 9, 2024

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Game Recap

MTL1

FinalSat, Nov 9, 2024Every game that night

TOR4

TOR beat MTL 4-1, with the chances close: 2.86 expected goals to 2.23. W. Nylander led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). W. Nylander had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. J. Woll stopped 20 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	0	1	0	1
TOR	1	3	0	4

1st 14:55TORC. Timmins0.07 xG
2nd 5:39TORW. NylanderPP0.14 xG
2nd 8:24TORM. MarnerSH0.14 xG
2nd 9:26MTLB. GallagherPP0.37 xG
2nd 12:15TORJ. TavaresPP0.26 xG

Team Stats

MTLTOR

21Shots on goal27

2.23Expected goals2.86

59Shot attempts43

185v5 shots on goal14

1/2Power play2/4

20Hits24

7Blocked shots21

10Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways12

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.23 xGTOR 2.86 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL21 on goal, 1 scored

TOR26 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Gallagher	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:11	1:30
E. Heineman	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	11:02	1:30
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:00	0:32
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:42	0:32
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:06	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	15:56	0:32
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:39	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	15:20	1:30
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	14:58	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	13:36	1:30
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:50	0:32
L. Condotta	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	8:19	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	23:37	1:30
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	24:09	0:32
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	22:29	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	18:36	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:36	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	13:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	27	23	4	.852	60:00	Loss
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	1	1	2	5	1	1	+1	0	22:59	2:25
W. Nylander	RW	1	1	2	7	0	1	0	0	20:38	2:18
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	0	5	2	0	0	18:48	2:05
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	6	4	0	0	0	18:42	2:04
D. Kampf	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	14:22	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	12:20	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	16:25	1:26
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	13:07	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:45	1:02
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:49	1:03
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:01	0:00
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5:10	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	21:08	2:33
C. Timmins	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:51	1:08
S. Benoit	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	+2	0	17:00	0:04
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	21:46	0:15
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	2	21:14	1:12
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	21	20	1	.952	60:00	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownArber Xhekaj MTL Plays near home (born in Hamilton)3 SOG
HometownJake Evans MTL Plays in his hometown0 SOG
HometownJosh Anderson MTL Plays near home (born in Burlington)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.9, TOR 3.8	MTL 1, TOR 4
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	MTL 25.5, TOR 34.0	MTL 21, TOR 27
Win chance	TOR 64%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR W. Nylander	3.4	7	1.11	2	39%	1
TOR J. Tavares	3.3	6	0.87	1	32%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.2	1	0.75	0	33%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.4	5	1.26	2	32%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.2	2	0.44	0	22%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.2	0	0.67	1	27%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	2.2	0	0.58	0	21%	0
TOR M. Rielly	2.0	0	0.76	1	10%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	1	0.81	0	27%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.9	2	0.42	1	18%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.9	1	0.65	0	17%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.8	1	0.38	0	18%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.8	3	0.62	0	11%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.8	0	0.59	0	19%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.8	2	0.45	0	8%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.7	1	0.49	0	16%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.6	0	0.34	0	16%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	2	0.31	0	16%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	1	0.48	0	19%	0
MTL L. Condotta	1.2	0	0.21	0	10%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.1	2	0.35	0	7%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.1	0	0.27	1	10%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	0	0.42	0	7%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.1	1	0.37	0	13%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.1	1	0.31	0	13%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.40	0	12%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.0	3	0.17	0	5%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	0	0.22	0	12%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	1	0.43	1	5%	1
MTL L. Hutson	0.9	1	0.44	1	5%	0
MTL E. Heineman	0.9	1	0.21	1	11%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.11	1	3%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.8	0	0.30	0	5%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	2	0.18	0	4%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.8	1	0.27	0	4%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.6	0	0.15	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.