TOR beat MTL 1-0 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.24 expected goals to 2.08. TOR outshot MTL 35 to 15. M. Marner had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. A. Stolarz stopped 15 of 15.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- OT 0:36TORM. Marner0.22 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 2.08 xGTOR 3.24 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:51 | 3:44 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:13 | 2:46 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 3:26 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:55 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:33 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:20 | 0:18 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:35 | 0:36 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 | 3:27 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:15 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 27:35 | 0:34 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24:30 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:57 | 3:26 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17:55 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 35 | 34 | 1 | .971 | 60:36 | OT loss |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TOR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marner | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:29 | 6:33 |
| W. Nylander | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:23 | 7:42 |
| J. Tavares | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:41 | 4:24 |
| A. Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:37 | 6:24 |
| M. Knies | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 | 6:01 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 1:19 |
| N. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 | 1:19 |
| C. Jarnkrok | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Domi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11:45 | 1:17 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Lorentz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25:43 | 3:09 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:21 | 0:00 |
| S. Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:00 |
| C. Tanev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:22 |
| P. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Stolarz | 15 | 15 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:29 | Win |
| J. Woll | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.9, TOR 3.7 | MTL 0, TOR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 26.1, TOR 29.7 | MTL 15, TOR 35 |
| Win chance | TOR 63% | TOR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR A. Matthews | 4.2 | 5 | 1.29 | 0 | 49% | 0 |
| TOR W. Nylander | 2.9 | 4 | 1.01 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.8 | 5 | 0.67 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TOR J. Tavares | 2.7 | 6 | 0.94 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| TOR B. McMann | 2.3 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| TOR M. Knies | 2.3 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| TOR M. Marner | 2.2 | 6 | 1.27 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.0 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TOR N. Robertson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TOR M. Rielly | 1.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TOR S. Laughton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TOR M. Domi | 1.4 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TOR C. Jarnkrok | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TOR P. Myers | 1.3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR S. Lorentz | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TOR B. Carlo | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TOR P. Holmberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR C. Tanev | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TOR S. Benoit | 0.7 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.