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Game Recap
MTL4
FinalSat, Nov 7, 2026Every game that night
TOR2

MTL beat TOR 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.70 expected goals to 3.28. A. Newhook led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Texier had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Fowler stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MTL2114
TOR0022
  1. 1st 5:56MTLA. Newhook0.14 xG
  2. 1st 13:06MTLA. Newhook0.06 xG
  3. 2nd 12:57MTLC. Kreider0.07 xG
  4. 3rd 6:19TORW. NylanderPP0.10 xG
  5. 3rd 7:14TORG. McKenna0.25 xG
  6. 3rd 12:15MTLZ. BolducPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

MTLTOR
28Shots on goal28
2.70Expected goals3.28
48Shot attempts64
265v5 shots on goal19
1/2Power play1/4
14Hits21
15Blocked shots8
8Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways18
7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.70 xGTOR 3.28 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdMTL goal, 5:56MTL goal, 13:06MTL goal, 12:57TOR goal, 6:19TOR goal, 7:14MTL goal, 12:15

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL27 on goal, 4 scored
TOR28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. NewhookC202212+2014:150:58
C. CaufieldRW0113100016:281:40
Z. BolducRW1013310016:081:40
K. DachC011110+2013:190:00
C. KreiderLW1013010011:370:58
O. KapanenC011000+2011:190:58
N. SuzukiC000101+1018:241:40
P. DanaultC0000000017:090:00
J. SlafkovskýLW0002110416:291:40
J. EvansC000100-1015:150:00
A. TexierLW0004010014:200:58
O. BeckC0000220010:210:00
K. GuhleD011231+1026:130:00
L. HutsonD0112010022:551:40
A. CarrierD0000110224:020:00
N. DobsonD000303+1021:270:58
A. XhekajD000110+1212:230:00
A. EngstromD000000+1010:440:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Fowler28262.92960:00Win
J. Dobes000–0:00

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. MatthewsC0113120022:577:01
W. NylanderRW1014000022:547:01
G. McKennaLW101401-1015:524:16
C. SissonsC011210+1013:180:00
D. JoshuaC011020+109:350:00
J. TavaresC0004100021:096:01
J. RoslovicC000301-1020:045:09
E. CowanRW0001100016:010:43
N. PaulLW0001110015:250:17
T. BluegerC000001-3010:510:11
B. DuhaimeLW000230-309:420:11
Z. MacEwenRW000030008:410:11
D. RaddyshD011110-2029:437:01
J. McCabeD000121-3022:270:00
O. Ekman-LarssonD000030+1020:240:11
C. TanevD000000-1018:230:11
T. StecherD000211+1416:350:00
M. RiellyD000010005:450:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Bobrovsky28244.85757:36Loss
A. Akhtyamov000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki16:44C. Caufield14:48J. Slafkovský14:49
Line 2A. Texier13:22Z. Bolduc14:28P. Danault12:58
Line 3C. Kreider10:39J. Evans11:08O. Beck10:21
Line 4K. Dach10:41A. Newhook10:15O. Kapanen9:56
Pair 1A. Carrier20:47K. Guhle22:07
Pair 2N. Dobson17:11L. Hutson21:04
Pair 3A. Xhekaj10:11A. Engstrom9:21

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews15:56J. Roslovic14:55E. Cowan14:49
Line 2J. Tavares15:08W. Nylander15:25N. Paul14:10
Line 3C. Sissons12:04G. McKenna11:36D. Joshua9:35
Line 4T. Blueger9:27B. Duhaime8:37Z. MacEwen8:30
Pair 1D. Raddysh21:44J. McCabe20:47
Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson19:15T. Stecher16:35
Pair 3C. Tanev16:32M. Rielly5:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 20 overs hit (50%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
TOR A. Matthews3.5+125-1253Under
MTL C. Caufield3.5+125-1483Under
TOR D. Raddysh2.5+120-1501Under
TOR J. Roslovic2.5+135-1683Over
MTL J. Slafkovský2.5+127-1602Under
TOR J. Tavares2.5+125-1484Over
MTL N. Suzuki2.5+107-1201Under
TOR W. Nylander2.5-102-1154Over
MTL A. Newhook1.5-110-1172Over
MTL A. Texier1.5+111-1354Over
TOR E. Cowan1.5-125+1101Under
TOR G. McKenna1.5-114-1054Over
MTL K. Guhle1.5+115–2Over
MTL L. Hutson1.5-115-1052Over
TOR M. Rielly1.5+110–0Under
MTL N. Dobson1.5-160+1363Over
TOR N. Paul1.5+160-1551Under
MTL O. Kapanen1.5+100–0Under
MTL P. Danault1.5+105–0Under
MTL Z. Bolduc1.5-130+1003Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownArber Xhekaj MTL Plays near home (born in Hamilton)1 SOG
  • HometownJake Evans MTL Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 3.5, TOR 3.4MTL 4, TOR 2
Total goals6.96
Shots on goalMTL 28.3, TOR 28.2MTL 28, TOR 28
Win chanceMTL 52%MTL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
TOR A. Matthews3.431.07141%0
MTL C. Caufield3.130.95137%0
TOR W. Nylander2.841.09137%1
TOR D. Raddysh2.710.71116%0
MTL N. Suzuki2.411.15031%0
TOR J. Roslovic2.330.67026%0
MTL J. Slafkovský2.320.79026%0
TOR J. Tavares2.240.77030%0
MTL N. Dobson2.030.55013%0
TOR G. McKenna1.840.53118%1
TOR E. Cowan1.810.55019%0
MTL L. Hutson1.620.94114%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.630.52120%1
TOR N. Paul1.510.42020%0
MTL P. Danault1.400.50016%0
TOR M. Rielly1.400.4709%0
MTL A. Texier1.440.43015%0
MTL C. Kreider1.430.50121%1
MTL A. Newhook1.420.49219%2
MTL K. Guhle1.320.4018%0
MTL O. Kapanen1.200.35116%0
TOR T. Blueger1.200.33012%0
MTL O. Beck1.200.27012%0
MTL J. Evans1.210.48016%0
TOR C. Sissons1.220.28112%0
TOR Z. MacEwen1.100.1708%0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.100.3106%0
MTL K. Dach1.110.34113%0
TOR T. Stecher1.020.2105%0
TOR J. McCabe1.010.3005%0
TOR D. Joshua1.000.32115%0
TOR B. Duhaime1.020.20010%0
MTL A. Carrier0.900.3807%0
MTL A. Engstrom0.900.1506%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.810.1204%0
TOR C. Tanev0.600.1902%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.