Game Recap: MTL 4, UTA 3, November 26, 2025

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Game Recap

MTL4

FinalWed, Nov 26, 2025Every game that night

UTA3

MTL beat UTA 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.55 expected goals to 4.41. UTA outshot MTL 34 to 17. N. Suzuki led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Schmaltz had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Dobes stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	2	0	2	4
UTA	0	3	0	3

1st 10:38MTLZ. BolducPP0.10 xG
1st 16:37MTLN. Suzuki0.23 xG
2nd 9:43UTAB. HaytonPP0.15 xG
2nd 11:58UTAK. Yamamoto0.18 xG
2nd 13:52UTAM. Carcone0.61 xG
3rd 3:20MTLN. SuzukiPP0.28 xG
3rd 4:47MTLI. Demidov0.20 xG

Team Stats

MTLUTA

17Shots on goal34

2.55Expected goals4.41

39Shot attempts71

125v5 shots on goal25

2/3Power play1/4

20Hits18

18Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes8

13Giveaways14

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 2.55 xGUTA 4.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL17 on goal, 4 scored

UTA33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	2	1	3	2	0	4	+1	0	23:52	4:03
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	2	3	2	0	1	+1	0	16:10	2:37
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	17:50	3:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	2	13:38	0:51
B. Gallagher	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:08	1:06
I. Demidov	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	12:52	1:39
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:44	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:23	0:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	18:02	2:56
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	10:28	0:00
F. Xhekaj	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:51	0:00
J. Davidson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	4	5:23	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	24:48	1:38
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	19:29	2:25
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	2	26:17	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-2	2	20:01	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:46	0:00
A. Engstrom	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	34	31	3	.912	60:00	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	0	21:56	4:54
D. Guenther	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	18:43	4:43
B. Hayton	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:19	4:40
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	15:31	1:42
K. Stenlund	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	14:59	1:44
K. Yamamoto	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	2	11:08	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	9:45	0:06
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	6	1	0	-1	0	23:09	4:45
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	15:42	1:41
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	2	13:05	0:10
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:40	1:38
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	9:11	0:07
M. Sergachev	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	0	25:42	4:49
J. Marino	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	2	17:18	0:05
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	21:34	0:12
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:35	1:44
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	+1	0	16:22	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	17	13	4	.765	57:15	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki17:01C. Caufield14:50Z. Bolduc13:33

Line 2J. Anderson13:54J. Evans12:48F. Xhekaj8:51

Line 3O. Kapanen11:50J. Slafkovský12:44I. Demidov10:44

Line 4B. Gallagher10:09J. Veleno7:57J. Davidson5:23

Pair 1M. Matheson19:07N. Dobson18:07

Pair 2J. Struble13:56L. Hutson16:00

Pair 3A. Carrier15:24A. Engstrom10:42

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz14:43C. Keller14:17B. Hayton13:10

Line 2L. Cooley12:56D. Guenther11:44K. Yamamoto11:08

Line 3J. McBain11:50J. Peterka11:02L. Crouse11:24

Line 4B. Tanev9:04M. Carcone9:39K. Stenlund8:49

Pair 1N. Schmidt14:26J. Marino15:56

Pair 2N. DeSimone15:10M. Sergachev15:44

Pair 3I. Cole13:42S. Durzi18:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MTL 2.8, UTA 3.3	MTL 4, UTA 3
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	MTL 23.5, UTA 29.1	MTL 17, UTA 34
Win chance	UTA 59%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	3	0.79	1	30%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.7	3	0.79	1	33%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.4	4	0.95	1	30%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.2	6	0.83	0	27%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	0	0.59	1	12%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.0	2	0.84	1	30%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.0	1	0.72	0	27%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.9	2	0.90	3	27%	2
UTA M. Sergachev	1.8	4	0.70	1	13%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	1	0.43	0	22%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.7	4	0.40	1	20%	1
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	2	0.46	1	18%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.7	0	0.51	0	19%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.6	1	0.40	1	16%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.5	2	0.44	3	20%	1
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	0	0.44	0	10%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.5	0	0.46	0	10%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.4	1	0.44	0	8%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	2	0.33	0	17%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.3	0	0.32	0	8%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	2	0.74	1	8%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	2	0.35	0	14%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.1	0	0.37	1	15%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.1	3	0.32	1	15%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.1	1	0.63	1	16%	1
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.0	1	0.31	1	14%	1
UTA J. Marino	0.9	0	0.39	1	5%	0
MTL J. Evans	0.9	1	0.36	0	12%	0
MTL J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.22	0	10%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	0	0.28	0	5%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	0	0.26	0	4%	0
UTA B. Tanev	0.8	0	0.19	0	10%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.7	0	0.19	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.