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Game Recap
MTL4
VGK1
MTL beat VGK 4-1, with the chances close: 3.71 expected goals to 3.37. VGK outshot MTL 31 to 19. Z. Bolduc led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Hertl had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Montembeault stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| VGK | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 14:30MTLZ. Bolduc0.27 xG
- 2nd 2:04MTLC. Caufield0.07 xG
- 3rd 3:36MTLJ. Evans0.21 xG
- 3rd 15:16VGKM. Stone0.23 xG
- 3rd 18:03MTLJ. SlafkovskýEN0.86 xG
Team Stats
MTLVGK
19Shots on goal31
3.71Expected goals3.37
41Shot attempts75
175v5 shots on goal25
0/1Power play0/1
20Hits15
24Blocked shots7
4Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways17
9Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MTL 3.71 xGVGK 3.37 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:04 | 1:32 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:28 | 1:43 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:01 | 1:45 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:29 | 1:53 |
| J. Evans | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:07 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:17 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:15 |
| F. Xhekaj | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 23:54 | 0:28 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:13 | 1:52 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 25:01 | 0:08 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 59:28 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:46 | 1:53 |
| M. Marner | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:24 | 1:53 |
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:00 | 1:53 |
| B. Bowman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:00 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:53 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:08 | 1:53 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:07 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:07 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:07 | 0:07 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 24:38 | 0:07 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:54 | 0:07 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:50 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Schmid | 18 | 15 | 3 | .833 | 58:48 | Loss |
| C. Lindbom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MTL
Line 1J. Evans14:38J. Anderson14:05A. Texier13:34
Line 2N. Suzuki14:20C. Caufield13:19Z. Bolduc12:44
Line 3O. Kapanen12:40J. Slafkovský12:14I. Demidov11:52
Line 4J. Veleno12:02F. Xhekaj11:02B. Gallagher13:15
Pair 1M. Matheson21:50N. Dobson21:14
Pair 2L. Hutson21:03J. Struble17:01
Pair 3A. Xhekaj11:08A. Carrier13:19
VGK
Line 1I. Barbashev17:11B. Bowman17:40J. Eichel15:49
Line 3R. Smith11:17C. Sissons11:08K. Kolesar10:22
Line 4B. Saad11:11T. Hertl11:49P. Dorofeyev11:31
Pair 1B. McNabb15:34S. Theodore20:06
Pair 2N. Hanifin22:30Z. Whitecloud15:26
Pair 3B. Hutton14:31K. Korczak16:32
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL 2.6, VGK 3.4 | MTL 4, VGK 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | MTL 23.0, VGK 30.1 | MTL 19, VGK 31 |
| Win chance | VGK 63% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.5 | 7 | 1.25 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 3.0 | 4 | 0.72 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.7 | 2 | 0.76 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.5 | 7 | 0.81 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VGK B. Bowman | 2.2 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.1 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 2.1 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 2.1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 0 | 0.89 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK M. Marner | 1.9 | 0 | 1.22 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.7 | 1 | 0.49 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.6 | 3 | 0.44 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK C. Sissons | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.8 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.