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Game Recap
MTL4
FinalWed, Oct 14, 2026Every game that night
WSH5

WSH beat MTL 5-4, with the chances close: 3.70 expected goals to 3.01. A. Tuch led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Dobson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. C. Lindgren stopped 26 of 30.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MTL2114
WSH2125
  1. 1st 4:29MTLJ. Anderson0.19 xG
  2. 1st 7:56WSHJ. Kyrou0.15 xG
  3. 1st 11:15MTLL. Hutson0.08 xG
  4. 1st 19:34WSHI. MiroshnichenkoPP0.26 xG
  5. 2nd 6:16WSHA. TuchSH0.05 xG
  6. 2nd 12:58MTLJ. Anderson0.30 xG
  7. 3rd 12:29WSHJ. Holl0.01 xG
  8. 3rd 17:05WSHA. Tuch0.10 xG
  9. 3rd 18:21MTLN. SuzukiPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

MTLWSH
30Shots on goal23
3.01Expected goals3.70
66Shot attempts51
225v5 shots on goal18
1/2Power play1/4
16Hits15
12Blocked shots17
12Penalty minutes8
11Giveaways11
3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MTL 3.01 xGWSH 3.70 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdMTL goal, 4:29WSH goal, 7:56MTL goal, 11:15WSH goal, 19:34WSH goal, 6:16MTL goal, 12:58WSH goal, 12:29WSH goal, 17:05MTL goal, 18:21

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MTL27 on goal, 4 scored
WSH24 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. NewhookC022301+1015:520:09
J. AndersonRW202310+2213:490:00
N. SuzukiC101310-1020:152:06
Z. BolducRW0110100012:340:18
C. CaufieldRW000000-2219:532:06
J. SlafkovskýLW000410-1019:402:06
P. DanaultC0001000017:390:33
C. KreiderLW000111+1015:312:06
J. EvansC000000-1012:330:00
A. TexierLW000220-1012:260:18
K. DachC000120-109:080:00
O. BeckC000100-107:460:00
L. HutsonD1123010224:142:06
N. DobsonD0115140022:210:18
K. GuhleD000242-2222:220:18
A. CarrierD000102-2420:420:00
A. XhekajD000020+1014:160:00
A. EngstromD000001+2011:570:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Dobes23185.78357:14Loss
J. Fowler000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. TuchRW213310+2018:493:46
J. KyrouRW1123200015:153:39
I. ProtasLW022002+1012:223:45
A. OvechkinLW011010+1013:144:39
I. MiroshnichenkoLW101111+1210:011:33
D. StromeC000101-1218:564:02
A. ProtasLW000101+1017:370:02
T. WilsonRW0005100017:133:47
J. SourdifC0002210216:050:09
B. JennerC0000000015:080:04
R. LeonardRW000100-2014:554:06
A. BeauvillierRW000031-1012:541:04
C. HutsonD0113100017:073:37
J. HollD1011000013:080:00
J. ChychrunD0002010023:034:18
M. FehérváryD0000040021:540:29
V. DesharnaisD0000340220:580:00
T. LiljegrenD000001+2016:570:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Lindgren30264.86760:00Win
L. Thompson000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki14:46J. Slafkovský14:18C. Caufield14:37
Line 2A. Texier12:08Z. Bolduc11:58P. Danault11:52
Line 3C. Kreider11:11J. Anderson11:37A. Newhook9:54
Line 4K. Dach8:36O. Beck7:46J. Evans7:25
Pair 1A. Carrier17:22K. Guhle18:04
Pair 2L. Hutson18:19N. Dobson16:10
Pair 3A. Xhekaj9:58A. Engstrom11:09

WSH

Line 1A. Protas14:49J. Sourdif13:32T. Wilson12:13
Line 2B. Jenner13:50A. Beauvillier11:42R. Leonard9:46
Line 3D. Strome13:04J. Kyrou10:49A. Tuch11:21
Line 4I. Miroshnichenko8:28I. Protas8:37A. Ovechkin7:48
Pair 1T. Liljegren15:47J. Chychrun17:28
Pair 2V. Desharnais16:30M. Fehérváry17:00
Pair 3J. Holl12:16C. Hutson12:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 17 overs hit (47%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
MTL C. Caufield3.5+100-1300Under
WSH A. Ovechkin2.5-120-1050Under
WSH A. Tuch2.5+122-1503Over
WSH J. Chychrun2.5+105-1152Under
MTL J. Slafkovský2.5+115-1284Over
MTL N. Suzuki2.5+115-1443Over
WSH R. Leonard2.5+125-1551Under
WSH T. Wilson2.5+145-1905Over
WSH A. Protas1.5-114-1101Under
WSH B. Jenner1.5-140+1100Under
WSH C. Hutson1.5-110-1203Over
MTL C. Kreider1.5-115+1001Under
WSH D. Strome1.5-145+1161Under
WSH I. Protas1.5+150-2000Under
WSH J. Kyrou1.5-140+1203Over
MTL L. Hutson1.5-115-1103Over
MTL N. Dobson1.5-154+1305Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMTL 3.1, WSH 3.2MTL 4, WSH 5
Total goals6.39
Shots on goalMTL 25.3, WSH 28.1MTL 30, WSH 23
Win chanceWSH 52%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MTL C. Caufield3.100.91036%0
WSH A. Tuch2.730.81333%2
WSH A. Ovechkin2.700.74131%0
WSH J. Chychrun2.520.68020%0
MTL J. Slafkovský2.440.78027%0
MTL N. Suzuki2.431.13131%1
WSH T. Wilson2.150.80031%0
WSH R. Leonard2.110.55020%0
WSH B. Jenner2.000.50022%0
WSH J. Kyrou2.030.57224%1
WSH D. Strome1.810.81026%0
WSH C. Hutson1.830.4517%0
MTL N. Dobson1.750.47112%0
WSH A. Protas1.610.54020%0
MTL C. Kreider1.610.64028%0
MTL A. Newhook1.630.51222%0
MTL L. Hutson1.630.91213%1
MTL J. Anderson1.530.35218%2
WSH A. Beauvillier1.400.27013%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.300.43118%0
MTL A. Texier1.320.41016%0
WSH I. Protas1.300.42213%0
MTL P. Danault1.210.42015%0
WSH J. Sourdif1.120.35014%0
WSH T. Liljegren1.100.2606%0
MTL J. Evans1.000.36013%0
MTL K. Guhle0.920.3007%0
WSH I. Miroshnichenko0.910.1918%1
WSH M. Fehérváry0.900.3608%0
MTL K. Dach0.810.26010%0
MTL A. Carrier0.810.3007%0
MTL A. Engstrom0.700.1003%0
MTL O. Beck0.710.1006%0
WSH V. Desharnais0.700.1603%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.600.0803%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.