Game Recap: NJD 5, BUF 0, November 28, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD5

FinalFri, Nov 28, 2025Every game that night

BUF0

NJD beat BUF 5-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.27 expected goals to 3.66. BUF outshot NJD 42 to 23. A. Gritsyuk led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Gritsyuk had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Allen stopped 42 of 42.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	1	3	5
BUF	0	0	0	0

1st 12:07NJDN. Hischier0.30 xG
2nd 7:45NJDA. Gritsyuk0.30 xG
3rd 1:39NJDB. Dillon0.05 xG
3rd 5:22NJDP. Cotter0.25 xG
3rd 16:49NJDA. Gritsyuk0.16 xG

Team Stats

NJDBUF

23Shots on goal42

2.27Expected goals3.66

38Shot attempts87

225v5 shots on goal38

0/1Power play0/2

20Hits24

20Blocked shots9

9Penalty minutes7

18Giveaways19

8Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.27 xGBUF 3.66 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD23 on goal, 5 scored

BUF41 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Cotter	LW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	0	16:03	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	2	0	2	6	0	0	+2	2	14:00	0:26
O. Palat	LW	0	2	2	0	1	2	+2	0	12:36	0:26
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	0	4	2	+1	0	18:43	1:08
C. Brown	RW	0	1	1	1	0	3	+2	0	18:05	0:00
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:58	1:08
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	0	15:55	1:08
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	19:19	1:08
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	2	13:28	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:07	0:00
J. Lammikko	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:29	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	9:18	0:26
B. Dillon	D	1	1	2	2	2	1	+3	0	18:47	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	7	0	+1	0	23:50	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	22:39	1:08
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	21:42	0:26
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	19:06	0:26
C. White	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+3	0	12:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	42	42	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	5	3	1	-1	0	17:57	1:25
R. McLeod	C	2	0	1	-3	0	17:43	1:26
J. Quinn	RW	1	1	1	-3	2	17:12	1:09
J. Doan	RW	3	1	0	-1	0	16:55	2:02
T. Thompson	C	3	2	0	-1	5	16:54	2:34
J. Zucker	LW	4	0	1	-3	0	16:22	1:59
Z. Benson	LW	1	1	0	-1	0	15:52	2:00
T. Kozak	C	1	3	2	-1	0	13:56	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	-1	0	13:46	0:09
P. Krebs	C	2	1	0	0	0	12:52	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	3	3	1	0	0	10:39	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	2	0	0	0	9:46	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	5	3	0	-2	0	26:03	2:07
O. Power	D	5	0	0	-1	0	22:57	1:27
B. Byram	D	1	0	0	-2	0	19:43	1:23
M. Samuelsson	D	4	3	1	-2	0	17:42	0:09
C. Timmins	D	1	1	1	-2	0	17:34	0:00
J. Bryson	D	1	0	0	-1	0	14:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	23	18	5	.783	60:00	Loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Bratt16:50T. Meier16:57N. Hischier14:45

Line 2C. Brown16:05P. Cotter15:28C. Glass13:28

Line 3O. Palat11:57D. Mercer14:12A. Gritsyuk13:34

Line 4L. Glendening11:37J. Lammikko9:29S. Noesen8:52

Pair 1J. Siegenthaler22:42D. Hamilton20:06

Pair 2L. Hughes18:41S. Nemec18:05

Pair 3B. Dillon16:27C. White12:55

BUF

Line 1R. McLeod14:43J. Quinn16:03J. Zucker14:23

Line 2A. Tuch15:24T. Thompson14:20J. Doan14:53

Line 3T. Kozak13:50Z. Benson13:52N. Ostlund13:11

Line 4P. Krebs12:52B. Malenstyn10:13J. Greenway9:26

Pair 1R. Dahlin23:30M. Samuelsson16:41

Pair 2C. Timmins16:26B. Byram17:54

Pair 3O. Power20:22J. Bryson14:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.2, BUF 3.3	NJD 5, BUF 0
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	NJD 28.8, BUF 28.3	NJD 23, BUF 42
Win chance	BUF 50%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.2	0	0.81	1	33%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	3	0.92	0	40%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	2	0.64	0	16%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	5	0.83	0	16%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	2	0.95	1	33%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	2	1.01	0	27%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.1	3	0.53	0	21%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.1	6	0.41	2	16%	2
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	4	0.64	0	24%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.0	5	0.73	0	28%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.0	1	0.67	0	24%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	0	0.65	0	9%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	3	0.60	1	27%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	1	0.55	0	17%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.6	1	0.47	0	11%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	1	0.44	1	17%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	5	0.40	0	6%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.3	0	0.37	0	16%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	2	0.57	0	20%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.3	2	0.29	0	12%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	4	0.33	0	7%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	1	0.45	0	11%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	0	0.31	0	15%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.1	0	0.33	2	15%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	2	0.26	2	14%	1
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	3	0.18	0	8%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	1	0.28	0	4%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	2	0.28	0	9%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.9	1	0.29	0	15%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	2	0.25	2	5%	1
NJD L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.13	0	8%	0
NJD C. White	0.6	0	0.13	0	2%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	1	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.