Game Recap: NJD 2, CBJ 4, December 19, 2024

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Game Recap

NJD2

FinalThu, Dec 19, 2024Every game that night

CBJ4

CBJ beat NJD 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.95 expected goals to 5.16. NJD outshot CBJ 42 to 20. S. Monahan led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Hughes had 13 shots on goal against our projection of 3.6. E. Merzlikins stopped 40 of 42.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	0	2	2
CBJ	1	2	1	4

1st 7:55CBJI. Provorov0.63 xG
2nd 9:36CBJZ. WerenskiPP0.02 xG
2nd 13:58CBJS. Monahan0.18 xG
3rd 17:10NJDL. Hughes0.58 xG
3rd 18:35NJDT. Meier0.08 xG
3rd 18:50CBJS. MonahanEN0.64 xG

Team Stats

NJDCBJ

42Shots on goal20

5.16Expected goals2.95

97Shot attempts42

345v5 shots on goal17

0/1Power play1/2

19Hits15

8Blocked shots24

4Penalty minutes2

22Giveaways16

8Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 5.16 xGCBJ 2.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD42 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ19 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	13	0	0	0	0	25:05	1:22
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	2	19:51	0:38
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	14:29	0:38
P. Cotter	LW	0	1	1	2	2	2	0	0	11:18	0:00
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	23:59	1:22
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	23:05	1:22
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:03	0:38
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	16:23	1:22
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:15	0:38
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	9:09	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	8:29	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:09	0:00
L. Hughes	D	1	1	2	6	0	1	0	0	26:26	0:38
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	19:27	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:56	1:22
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:17	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:07	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	19	16	3	.842	54:36	Loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Monahan	C	2	1	3	3	0	1	+1	0	19:21	3:09
K. Marchenko	RW	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	13:32	3:11
M. Olivier	RW	0	1	1	2	3	4	+2	0	20:23	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	17:06	3:13
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	16:03	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	18:19	0:02
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:31	3:13
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	14:17	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:31	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:21	0:00
J. Malatesta	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:56	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:15	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	0	1	1	0	3	0	2	27:26	3:13
I. Provorov	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	+2	0	24:54	0:04
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	-1	0	25:09	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	14:30	0:00
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:48	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	42	40	2	.952	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.5, CBJ 3.1	NJD 2, CBJ 4
Total goals	6.7	6
Shots on goal	NJD 30.8, CBJ 29.1	NJD 42, CBJ 20
Win chance	NJD 56%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.6	13	1.25	1	38%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.2	1	0.88	1	17%	1
NJD T. Meier	3.0	4	0.80	1	34%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.7	1	1.02	0	34%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.7	1	0.64	0	15%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	1	0.69	2	30%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.5	2	1.09	0	31%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.4	3	0.73	3	26%	2
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.1	1	0.59	1	27%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.1	3	0.68	0	27%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	2.0	0	0.67	0	25%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.0	0	0.51	0	21%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.8	2	0.44	0	19%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.8	1	0.39	0	15%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.6	1	0.55	0	25%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.6	1	0.45	0	18%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.6	1	0.28	0	6%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.5	6	0.52	2	8%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	2	0.47	0	11%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.4	2	0.28	1	14%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.3	2	0.39	1	18%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	2	0.49	1	19%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.2	3	0.36	1	7%	1
CBJ M. Olivier	1.2	2	0.31	1	14%	0
CBJ J. Malatesta	1.1	0	0.35	0	14%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.1	0	0.28	0	6%	0
NJD N. Bastian	1.0	0	0.29	0	13%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	1	0.21	0	4%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.0	1	0.24	0	12%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.9	0	0.31	0	13%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.8	1	0.16	0	2%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	1	0.28	0	5%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.7	1	0.16	0	9%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.7	2	0.20	0	11%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.5	0	0.09	0	2%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.5	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.