Game Recap: NJD 3, CBJ 2, October 13, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD3

FinalMon, Oct 13, 2025Every game that night

CBJ2

NJD beat CBJ 3-2, with the chances close: 3.18 expected goals to 3.56. D. Mercer led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Z. Werenski had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. J. Markstrom stopped 8 of 9.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	1	1	3
CBJ	0	1	1	2

1st 15:47NJDT. MeierPP0.11 xG
2nd 8:49CBJK. Marchenko0.18 xG
2nd 11:09NJDD. MercerPP0.17 xG
3rd 19:03NJDD. MercerEN0.54 xG
3rd 19:39CBJD. Voronkov0.13 xG

Team Stats

NJDCBJ

28Shots on goal33

3.18Expected goals3.56

54Shot attempts69

235v5 shots on goal21

2/2Power play0/5

15Hits18

18Blocked shots12

10Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways20

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.18 xGCBJ 3.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD27 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ32 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Mercer	C	2	0	2	4	1	1	+1	0	16:35	0:56
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	19:27	2:20
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	-2	0	18:40	2:21
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-2	0	16:50	2:19
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:02	2:18
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	14:25	1:07
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-2	0	13:08	0:55
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	16:55	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:47	1:04
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:24	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	8:37	0:00
B. Halonen	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:54	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	0	4	2	0	0	18:28	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:42	1:08
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	21:42	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	4	21:00	2:29
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	2	20:19	0:08
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	14:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	24	23	1	.958	40:00
J. Markstrom	9	8	1	.889	20:00	Win

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0	24:24	6:13
D. Voronkov	LW	1	0	1	5	2	0	+2	0	17:09	3:34
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	22:45	5:58
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	19:23	6:26
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	19:08	5:45
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	17:49	3:16
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	2	17:10	3:04
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	6	1	+1	0	14:48	0:17
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	13:33	0:08
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:00	0:07
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:51	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1:17	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	21:05	2:40
Z. Werenski	D	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	29:14	7:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	20:42	2:56
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	+1	0	19:56	0:01
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:16	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	27	25	2	.926	57:52	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1N. Hischier12:39D. Mercer12:15T. Meier11:48

Line 2C. Glass11:19A. Gritsyuk12:21C. Brown12:47

Line 3O. Palat11:30J. Hughes13:00J. Bratt11:21

Line 4L. Glendening7:28P. Cotter8:37B. Halonen6:54

Pair 1B. Pesce15:53L. Hughes18:22

Pair 2D. Hamilton13:57J. Siegenthaler14:54

Pair 3B. Dillon13:12S. Nemec13:48

CBJ

Line 1S. Monahan14:22K. Marchenko16:20D. Voronkov13:14

Line 2B. Jenner11:14A. Fantilli13:17C. Sillinger12:34

Line 3C. Coyle11:24M. Olivier12:09K. Johnson10:39

Line 4Z. Aston-Reese7:34I. Lundestrom9:06M. Wood1:17

Pair 1Z. Werenski19:28D. Fabbro17:34

Pair 2D. Severson16:47I. Provorov15:38

Pair 3D. Mateychuk11:46J. Christiansen7:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.2, CBJ 3.3	NJD 3, CBJ 2
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	NJD 28.8, CBJ 29.3	NJD 28, CBJ 33
Win chance	CBJ 52%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	0	1.09	1	37%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.6	3	0.84	1	36%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	7	0.85	0	17%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	3.0	2	0.64	0	16%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.8	3	1.05	1	29%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.8	1	0.96	1	34%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.4	5	0.70	1	29%	1
CBJ B. Jenner	2.3	1	0.58	0	26%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.1	3	0.59	0	26%	0
NJD D. Mercer	2.0	4	0.55	2	26%	2
CBJ S. Monahan	2.0	1	0.71	0	23%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	2	0.62	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.8	5	0.48	1	21%	1
CBJ M. Wood	1.7	1	0.28	0	13%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.7	3	0.41	0	16%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.7	3	0.32	0	6%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	0	0.37	0	14%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	0	0.59	0	21%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.6	3	0.36	0	14%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.5	1	0.46	1	19%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	2	0.42	1	8%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.3	3	0.32	0	7%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	0	0.32	0	14%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.3	0	0.27	0	6%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.2	1	0.29	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.2	1	0.40	0	16%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	2	0.35	0	8%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.1	0	0.21	0	10%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.1	0	0.18	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	1	0.30	0	7%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.21	1	4%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.12	0	8%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	1	0.19	0	9%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.