Game Recap: NJD 3, CBJ 2, December 31, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD3

FinalWed, Dec 31, 2025Every game that night

CBJ2

NJD beat CBJ 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.69 expected goals to 4.30. L. Hughes led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Allen stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	0	3	3
CBJ	1	1	0	2

1st 6:18CBJM. Marchment0.65 xG
2nd 13:41CBJC. Coyle0.20 xG
3rd 2:49NJDN. HischierPP0.19 xG
3rd 3:44NJDA. Gritsyuk0.04 xG
3rd 4:45NJDL. Hughes0.14 xG

Team Stats

NJDCBJ

33Shots on goal35

2.69Expected goals4.30

54Shot attempts72

315v5 shots on goal29

1/1Power play0/3

17Hits26

10Blocked shots11

11Penalty minutes7

14Giveaways18

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.69 xGCBJ 4.30 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD33 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	19:39	0:04
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	6	0	0	-1	0	19:26	0:04
C. Brown	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	18:35	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	-1	0	14:51	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:19	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:07	0:00
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:41	0:04
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:28	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	5	13:18	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:41	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:54	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6:53	0:04
L. Hughes	D	1	1	2	1	0	2	0	0	21:27	0:04
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	22:58	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	25:18	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	4	3	0	+1	4	21:04	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	18:08	0:00
C. White	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	35	33	2	.943	59:41	Win
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	5	1	1	-1	2	25:11	3:51
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	21:15	3:44
B. Jenner	C	0	1	1	4	3	1	+1	0	18:22	2:51
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:51	2:09
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	4	2	0	+1	0	14:54	2:15
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:45	3:35
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	16:28	0:50
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:27	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	12:53	2:20
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:29	0:00
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	8:48	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:51	0:00
D. Mayo	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	9:36	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	29:33	2:25
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	22:54	2:29
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	22:41	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	21:32	3:31
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	33	30	3	.909	58:13	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Hughes18:58J. Bratt15:59N. Hischier16:34

Line 2O. Palat12:45C. Brown14:51C. Glass13:18

Line 3A. Gritsyuk13:16D. Mercer13:23T. Meier14:34

Line 4S. Noesen6:30P. Cotter6:54L. Glendening8:01

Pair 1B. Pesce20:47L. Hughes18:27

Pair 2D. Hamilton19:13J. Siegenthaler19:35

Pair 3B. Dillon14:41C. White11:24

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko19:33A. Fantilli16:16M. Marchment15:44

Line 2C. Coyle15:38B. Jenner13:44M. Olivier15:38

Line 3C. Sillinger12:39D. Voronkov10:33M. Wood2:51

Line 4K. Johnson11:17B. Gaunce13:04Z. Aston-Reese8:29

Pair 1I. Provorov25:49D. Fabbro21:56

Pair 2D. Severson19:04D. Mateychuk17:06

Pair 3D. Mayo9:36J. Christiansen10:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.9, CBJ 3.3	NJD 3, CBJ 2
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	NJD 28.9, CBJ 30.5	NJD 33, CBJ 35
Win chance	CBJ 57%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	6	1.15	1	38%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.1	2	0.66	1	30%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.9	1	0.82	0	33%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	5	0.80	1	31%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	4	0.48	0	15%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.6	3	0.85	1	30%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	3	0.88	0	25%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.3	1	0.64	2	12%	1
CBJ B. Jenner	2.2	4	0.55	1	25%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.2	1	0.42	1	17%	1
CBJ M. Marchment	2.0	3	0.65	1	26%	1
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	0	0.60	0	25%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	2	0.48	0	22%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.8	0	0.35	0	17%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.8	3	0.43	0	9%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.8	1	0.36	0	15%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.6	2	0.46	1	18%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	4	0.37	1	13%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.5	2	0.54	0	14%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.5	2	0.40	0	17%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	3	0.27	0	6%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.4	3	0.56	1	20%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.3	2	0.38	0	8%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.2	1	0.33	0	14%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	1	0.31	1	14%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.1	2	0.24	0	11%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.1	0	0.36	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.1	2	0.24	0	6%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	1	0.14	1	3%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.0	0	0.25	0	13%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	0.8	2	0.15	0	7%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.22	0	5%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	0	0.09	0	2%	0
NJD C. White	0.7	0	0.15	0	2%	0
CBJ D. Mayo	0.6	1	0.09	1	3%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	1	0.10	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.