Game Recap: NJD 4, CHI 3 (OT), November 12, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD4

Final/OTWed, Nov 12, 2025Every game that night

CHI3

NJD beat CHI 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.14 expected goals to 2.56. NJD outshot CHI 37 to 20. S. Nemec scored three for NJD. L. Hughes had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Markstrom stopped 17 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NJD	0	1	2	1	4
CHI	1	0	2	0	3

1st 18:35CHIC. BedardPP0.26 xG
2nd 19:45NJDS. Nemec0.06 xG
3rd 3:05CHIL. Slaggert0.07 xG
3rd 10:13NJDD. Mercer0.14 xG
3rd 13:34CHIS. Lafferty0.09 xG
3rd 16:14NJDS. Nemec0.07 xG
OT 3:28NJDS. Nemec0.14 xG

Team Stats

NJDCHI

37Shots on goal20

3.14Expected goals2.56

71Shot attempts43

305v5 shots on goal11

0/1Power play1/3

19Hits28

7Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways19

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.14 xGCHI 2.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD36 on goal, 4 scored

CHI20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	+3	0	23:29	1:29
D. Mercer	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	+2	0	23:54	0:34
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	23:00	1:29
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	20:39	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	0	20:32	1:50
S. Noesen	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	13:17	0:33
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:11	1:26
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	12:34	0:31
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	11:15	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:31	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4:02	0:00
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2:13	0:00
S. Nemec	D	3	0	3	5	0	1	+4	0	26:27	0:31
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	7	0	1	-2	2	26:48	1:27
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+3	0	22:37	0:10
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	2	21:49	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	12:37	0:00
C. White	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	20	17	3	.850	63:28	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Foligno	LW	0	2	2	1	4	1	+2	0	12:03	1:12
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	25:00	3:19
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-2	0	23:23	3:19
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	-1	0	18:27	3:19
L. Slaggert	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	0	9:32	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	8:59	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	23:02	0:00
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:45	3:20
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	18:19	1:07
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	15:14	1:13
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	9	0	-1	0	12:28	0:06
L. Crevier	D	0	2	2	1	2	0	-1	0	18:00	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	22:07	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	19:02	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	18:30	3:19
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	17:57	1:13
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:07	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:29	1:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	37	33	4	.892	63:28	OT loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Hughes19:31D. Mercer20:35A. Gritsyuk19:59

Line 2J. Bratt16:28N. Hischier17:00T. Meier18:14

Line 3O. Palat11:31S. Noesen12:44P. Cotter11:15

Line 4L. Glendening6:29Z. MacEwen2:13

Pair 1J. Siegenthaler20:08S. Nemec22:44

Pair 2B. Dillon19:47L. Hughes21:08

Pair 3C. White11:32D. Cholowski12:00

CHI

Line 1T. Teravainen19:03I. Mikheyev21:36R. Greene15:53

Line 2C. Bedard17:36T. Bertuzzi15:08O. Moore15:57

Line 3N. Foligno10:14L. Slaggert9:32S. Lafferty8:59

Line 4C. Dach12:22R. Donato13:54

Pair 1A. Vlasic19:46L. Crevier17:12

Pair 2C. Murphy12:54M. Grzelcyk15:44

Pair 3W. Kaiser18:12S. Rinzel10:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.3, CHI 2.9	NJD 4, CHI 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	NJD 29.4, CHI 25.6	NJD 37, CHI 20
Win chance	NJD 56%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	4.3	3	1.21	2	40%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.3	3	0.76	1	33%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	2	0.93	1	33%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	2	0.88	1	27%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.5	2	1.01	0	28%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.1	3	0.39	1	16%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.0	7	0.69	1	10%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	5	0.55	1	26%	1
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.9	2	0.48	0	24%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	4	0.64	1	27%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.8	1	0.53	0	22%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.6	1	0.33	0	14%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.5	1	0.31	0	6%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.5	1	0.37	1	18%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.5	0	0.40	0	13%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.4	2	0.66	1	21%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	1	0.36	0	16%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.2	5	0.35	3	7%	3
CHI C. Dach	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.2	1	0.37	2	14%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	0	0.26	0	3%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	0	0.25	0	14%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NJD Z. MacEwen	0.9	0	0.12	0	6%	0
CHI R. Greene	0.9	1	0.29	0	15%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.9	1	0.25	0	1%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	0.9	2	0.35	0	2%	0
CHI C. Murphy	0.9	0	0.16	0	3%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.8	1	0.19	2	5%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.8	1	0.18	1	8%	1
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.27	0	5%	0
CHI S. Lafferty	0.8	1	0.17	1	9%	1
NJD D. Cholowski	0.7	3	0.22	0	4%	0
NJD C. White	0.7	0	0.15	0	2%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	0	0.12	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.