Game Recap: NJD 3, DAL 4, March 4, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD3

FinalTue, Mar 4, 2025Every game that night

DAL4

DAL beat NJD 4-3, with the chances close: 2.95 expected goals to 2.99. R. Hintz led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Noesen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. C. DeSmith stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	1	2	3
DAL	1	2	1	4

1st 1:39DALW. Johnston0.14 xG
2nd 6:30DALI. Lyubushkin0.09 xG
2nd 7:09NJDT. MeierPP0.11 xG
2nd 19:46DALR. HintzPP0.18 xG
3rd 12:18NJDN. HischierPP0.08 xG
3rd 15:52NJDB. Pesce0.21 xG
3rd 19:55DALT. Harley0.02 xG

Team Stats

NJDDAL

28Shots on goal21

2.99Expected goals2.95

54Shot attempts43

245v5 shots on goal16

2/2Power play1/5

37Hits12

12Blocked shots7

10Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways23

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.99 xGDAL 2.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD28 on goal, 3 scored

DAL21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	20:46	0:37
J. Bratt	LW	0	2	2	2	4	1	0	0	18:45	0:37
T. Meier	RW	1	1	2	3	8	1	+1	0	17:24	0:37
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	19:45	0:37
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	5	4	0	0	2	15:18	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	13:29	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	12:53	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	12:17	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	11:27	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	10:04	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:51	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	9:50	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	-2	2	25:49	0:37
B. Pesce	D	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	24:27	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	23:40	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	2	23:17	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:20	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	5:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	21	17	4	.810	59:33	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Hintz	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	+2	0	18:00	5:29
J. Robertson	LW	0	2	2	3	0	1	+1	0	20:11	6:09
W. Johnston	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	0	0	18:41	5:42
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:08	5:37
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	16:17	2:50
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	16:11	2:32
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:23	0:51
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:53	0:12
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:52	2:18
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:14	1:42
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:14	0:12
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:09	0:00
T. Harley	D	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	25:55	6:18
I. Lyubushkin	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	17:14	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	21:25	0:46
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:14	0:23
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	14:35	1:57
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	2	13:47	0:12

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	28	25	3	.893	60:00	Win
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownStefan Noesen NJD Plays near home (born in Plano)5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.7, DAL 3.1	NJD 3, DAL 4
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	NJD 26.9, DAL 28.0	NJD 28, DAL 21
Win chance	DAL 57%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD D. Hamilton	2.8	0	0.51	0	12%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.6	3	0.61	2	27%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	2	0.75	2	29%	1
DAL J. Robertson	2.5	3	0.85	2	31%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	2	0.78	2	27%	1
DAL T. Harley	2.1	2	0.59	2	13%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.0	2	0.79	2	22%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	4	0.73	3	30%	1
DAL M. Marchment	1.9	3	0.55	0	23%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	1.9	0	0.39	0	14%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	0	0.76	0	28%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.8	1	0.44	2	8%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.7	5	0.42	0	19%	0
DAL M. Granlund	1.6	0	0.61	0	15%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.6	1	0.58	0	21%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.5	4	0.41	0	20%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.4	1	0.44	0	17%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.4	1	0.28	0	13%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	4	0.20	1	4%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.4	2	0.32	0	7%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	0	0.37	0	15%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	0	0.31	0	11%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.2	0	0.40	0	17%	0
DAL C. Ceci	1.1	0	0.28	0	5%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	0	0.27	0	14%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	0	0.18	0	4%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.9	2	0.27	0	12%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.9	1	0.22	0	10%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.9	0	0.25	0	6%	0
DAL M. Dumba	0.9	0	0.14	0	4%	0
NJD S. Nemec	0.8	1	0.15	0	3%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	2	0.19	0	4%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.7	0	0.17	0	9%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	2	0.18	1	2%	1
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	1	0.25	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.