Game Recap: NJD 6, DAL 4, March 24, 2026

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Game Recap

NJD6

FinalTue, Mar 24, 2026Every game that night

DAL4

NJD beat DAL 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.52 expected goals to 2.46. W. Johnston led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Robertson had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. J. Allen stopped 23 of 27.

Team Stats

NJDDAL

25Shots on goal27

3.52Expected goals2.46

46Shot attempts65

195v5 shots on goal22

0/3Power play1/4

15Hits21

22Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways15

4Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.52 xGDAL 2.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD24 on goal, 5 scored

DAL27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	2	0	2	2	0	3	0	0	19:20	3:25
J. Bratt	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	17:09	3:16
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+2	0	20:05	2:40
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	3	1	3	+2	2	18:33	1:38
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+2	0	18:08	3:23
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	0	16:54	0:50
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	16:22	0:41
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:17	0:00
L. Hameenaho	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	13:52	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:11	0:15
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	6:33	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	6:24	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	1	1	2	2	1	2	+1	2	21:01	2:32
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	2	2	0	2	0	+2	0	19:50	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	21:29	1:28
S. Nemec	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	16:57	0:52
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	19:12	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	+1	2	18:32	0:15

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	27	23	4	.852	60:00	Win
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Robertson	LW	1	2	3	10	1	1	+1	2	21:17	3:22
W. Johnston	C	2	1	3	3	2	1	+1	0	19:50	3:06
M. Bourque	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+2	0	17:16	1:20
M. Duchene	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	-3	0	16:57	3:07
J. Hryckowian	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	16:37	1:19
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	17:03	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-3	0	15:00	3:08
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	13:51	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:53	0:00
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:28	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:07	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	9:59	1:20
T. Harley	D	0	2	2	2	0	3	+1	0	23:07	1:01
N. Lundkvist	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	0	15:53	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	4	24:50	3:25
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:24	1:02
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-4	0	16:44	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	13:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	8	4	4	.500	20:00
C. DeSmith	16	15	1	.938	37:47	Loss

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1C. Glass15:01L. Hameenaho13:52A. Gritsyuk15:26

Line 2C. Brown13:21J. Hughes15:14J. Bratt12:05

Line 3T. Meier14:42N. Hischier12:28D. Mercer11:04

Line 4N. Bjugstad5:44M. Tsyplakov6:24P. Cotter6:21

Pair 1J. Kovacevic16:57L. Hughes17:15

Pair 2D. Hamilton14:46J. Siegenthaler14:20

Pair 3B. Dillon16:22S. Nemec15:23

DAL

Line 1M. Bourque15:56J. Robertson14:48W. Johnston13:35

Line 2C. Blackwell13:04J. Hryckowian13:09S. Steel14:47

Line 3J. Benn9:39M. Duchene10:47M. Bunting7:49

Line 4O. Bäck8:52A. Hyry8:50A. Erne10:28

Pair 1E. Lindell17:14M. Heiskanen17:29

Pair 2T. Harley17:49N. Lundkvist14:58

Pair 3T. Myers14:14L. Bichsel13:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.6, DAL 3.1	NJD 6, DAL 4
Total goals	5.7	10
Shots on goal	NJD 27.4, DAL 25.6	NJD 25, DAL 27
Win chance	DAL 58%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.3	2	1.00	2	32%	2
DAL J. Robertson	3.2	10	1.13	3	40%	1
NJD T. Meier	3.0	3	0.54	1	26%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	2.8	2	0.53	2	14%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	3	0.88	3	35%	2
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	4	0.73	1	28%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.1	1	0.45	1	8%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.0	2	0.77	2	22%	1
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.0	1	0.40	1	15%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	3	0.72	0	11%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.9	2	0.51	1	20%	1
DAL T. Harley	1.8	2	0.53	2	12%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.7	0	0.82	1	28%	0
DAL M. Bunting	1.7	0	0.47	0	19%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.7	4	0.54	1	17%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.6	1	0.38	1	19%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.6	0	0.67	0	23%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.5	0	0.30	1	10%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.4	0	0.31	0	14%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.2	0	0.41	1	17%	0
NJD L. Hameenaho	1.2	2	0.24	0	10%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.2	3	0.22	1	5%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.1	0	0.21	0	9%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	0	0.41	0	13%	0
DAL T. Myers	1.1	0	0.19	0	3%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	2	0.25	0	11%	0
NJD N. Bjugstad	1.1	1	0.19	0	10%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.0	1	0.33	0	7%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.9	0	0.19	0	9%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	0	0.12	2	2%	0
NJD M. Tsyplakov	0.8	2	0.17	0	6%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	1	0.17	0	6%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.6	0	0.16	0	9%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.19	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.