Game Recap: NJD 5, DAL 1, October 27, 2026

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Game Recap

NJD5

FinalTue, Oct 27, 2026Every game that night

DAL1

NJD beat DAL 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.84 expected goals to 1.50. NJD outshot DAL 27 to 18. N. Hischier led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Hughes had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. C. Hellebuyck stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	3	1	5
DAL	0	1	0	1

1st 2:41NJDN. Hischier0.18 xG
2nd 0:38NJDN. Hischier0.07 xG
2nd 11:45NJDJ. Boqvist0.06 xG
2nd 16:08DALJ. Hryckowian0.04 xG
2nd 16:36NJDL. Hughes0.09 xG
3rd 13:15NJDJ. Hughes0.14 xG

Team Stats

NJDDAL

27Shots on goal18

2.84Expected goals1.50

59Shot attempts37

205v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play0/0

31Hits25

12Blocked shots17

5Penalty minutes17

13Giveaways11

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.84 xGDAL 1.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD26 on goal, 5 scored

DAL17 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	1	1	2	6	0	0	+2	0	19:42	4:58
N. Hischier	C	2	0	2	3	1	1	+2	0	18:08	4:50
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:44	4:59
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	16:35	4:52
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	0	6	0	+2	0	16:18	1:10
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	16:10	1:00
J. Boqvist	C	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	0	14:03	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	13:18	0:50
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	17:01	1:02
A. Lombardi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:50	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:48	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	9:55	0:00
L. Hughes	D	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	0	22:58	5:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:47	1:01
B. Pesce	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	+3	0	18:07	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	17:44	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	20:28	0:18
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	5	15:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	18	17	1	.944	60:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hryckowian	C	1	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	14:56	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	11:21	0:00
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	20:44	0:00
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	18:51	0:00
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:42	0:00
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	17:29	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	-1	0	16:59	0:00
A. Hyry	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	16:12	0:00
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	13:13	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	17	9:46	0:00
M. Seminoff	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	8:36	0:00
D. Hryckowian	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	7:56	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	18:55	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	26:40	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	25:29	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	19:49	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	-2	0	18:40	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	27	22	5	.815	60:00	Loss
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1E. Rodrigues15:59A. Mantha15:10J. Boqvist14:03

Line 2N. Hischier13:18L. Evangelista13:45T. Meier15:08

Line 3J. Hughes14:44A. Gritsyuk12:28J. Bratt11:43

Line 4C. Brown12:48A. Lombardi12:50C. Glass9:55

Pair 1D. Hamilton18:46J. Siegenthaler20:10

Pair 2L. Hughes17:58B. Pesce18:07

Pair 3B. Dillon15:24J. Kovacevic17:44

DAL

Line 1W. Johnston20:44M. Rantanen17:29J. Kiviranta14:31

Line 2T. Seguin17:42R. Hintz12:49J. Robertson18:51

Line 3J. Benn9:46A. Hyry13:32J. Hryckowian11:51

Line 4C. Blackwell7:59M. Seminoff8:36D. Hryckowian7:56

Pair 1M. Heiskanen21:46T. Harley22:54

Pair 2N. Lundkvist18:40L. Bichsel17:32

Pair 3T. Myers16:40K. Capobianco10:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 18 overs hit (39%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
NJD J. Hughes	2.5	-150	+122	6	Over
DAL J. Robertson	2.5	-156	+125	3	Over
NJD L. Hughes	2.5	+142	-180	2	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	+140	-174	0	Under
NJD T. Meier	2.5	+100	-110	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	2.5	+115	-135	1	Under
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.5	-125	+108	1	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	1.5	-180	+146	3	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	1.5	+100	-110	2	Over
DAL J. Benn	1.5	+155	-200	0	Under
NJD J. Bratt	1.5	-128	+105	0	Under
DAL J. Kiviranta	1.5	+125	-150	4	Over
NJD L. Evangelista	1.5	-160	+135	1	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.5	-150	+140	0	Under
NJD N. Hischier	1.5	-160	+130	3	Over
DAL R. Hintz	1.5	-148	+125	2	Over
DAL T. Harley	1.5	-125	+115	1	Under
DAL T. Seguin	1.5	-122	+105	1	Under

5 of 35 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NJD A. Gritsyuk	0.5	+360	-400	0	Under
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
NJD A. Lombardi	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
NJD B. Dillon	0.5	+2500	-4000	0	Under
NJD B. Pesce	0.5	+2000	-5000	0	Under
DAL C. Blackwell	0.5	+1000	-3500	0	Under
NJD C. Brown	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
NJD C. Glass	0.5	+800	-900	0	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+750	-1000	0	Under
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
NJD J. Boqvist	0.5	+650	-1400	1	Over
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	+320	-490	0	Under
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+550	-1200	1	Over
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	+195	-210	1	Over
DAL J. Kiviranta	0.5	+600	-750	0	Under
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.5	+3000	-4000	0	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+170	-220	0	Under
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.5	+3000	-4000	0	Under
DAL K. Capobianco	0.5	+2500	-10000	0	Under
DAL L. Bichsel	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
NJD L. Evangelista	0.5	+350	-400	0	Under
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+750	-1000	1	Over
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+650	-800	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
DAL M. Seminoff	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	+230	-310	2	Over
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+2500	-4000	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
NJD T. Meier	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
DAL T. Myers	0.5	+2300	-10000	0	Under
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under

12 of 35 overs hit (34%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NJD A. Gritsyuk	0.5	+285	-360	1	Over
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+450	–	0	Under
NJD A. Lombardi	0.5	+750	–	0	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+425	-600	1	Over
NJD B. Dillon	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
NJD B. Pesce	0.5	+330	-500	1	Over
DAL C. Blackwell	0.5	+700	–	1	Over
NJD C. Brown	0.5	+350	–	0	Under
NJD C. Glass	0.5	+750	–	0	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+225	-285	1	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+300	-325	0	Under
NJD J. Boqvist	0.5	+425	–	0	Under
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	+142	-155	1	Over
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+320	–	0	Under
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	+104	-130	1	Over
DAL J. Kiviranta	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.5	+500	–	1	Over
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+100	-115	0	Under
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
DAL K. Capobianco	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
DAL L. Bichsel	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
NJD L. Evangelista	0.5	+205	-220	1	Over
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+196	-220	1	Over
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+116	-125	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-111	-115	0	Under
DAL M. Seminoff	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	+200	-225	0	Under
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+390	-575	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+164	-190	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+186	-210	0	Under
NJD T. Meier	0.5	+265	-295	1	Over
DAL T. Myers	0.5	+650	–	1	Over
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+158	-165	0	Under

15 of 35 overs hit (43%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NJD A. Gritsyuk	0.5	+136	-160	1	Over
DAL A. Hyry	0.5	+255	–	0	Under
NJD A. Lombardi	0.5	+400	–	0	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+190	-250	1	Over
NJD B. Dillon	0.5	+450	–	0	Under
NJD B. Pesce	0.5	+285	-400	1	Over
DAL C. Blackwell	0.5	+425	–	1	Over
NJD C. Brown	0.5	+235	–	0	Under
NJD C. Glass	0.5	+370	–	0	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+160	-190	1	Over
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+215	-235	0	Under
DAL J. Benn	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
NJD J. Boqvist	0.5	+250	–	1	Over
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	-125	+105	1	Over
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.5	+185	–	1	Over
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	-180	+155	2	Over
DAL J. Kiviranta	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.5	+475	–	1	Over
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	-200	+175	0	Under
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
DAL K. Capobianco	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
DAL L. Bichsel	0.5	+475	–	0	Under
NJD L. Evangelista	0.5	+110	-125	1	Over
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+136	-165	2	Over
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	-118	+110	0	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	-220	+165	0	Under
DAL M. Seminoff	0.5	+400	–	0	Under
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	-120	+105	2	Over
DAL N. Lundkvist	0.5	+330	-500	0	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	-132	+120	0	Under
DAL T. Harley	0.5	+134	-155	0	Under
NJD T. Meier	0.5	+128	-150	1	Over
DAL T. Myers	0.5	+550	–	1	Over
DAL T. Seguin	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	-150	+140	0	Under

0 of 15 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
NJD A. Gritsyuk	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
NJD A. Mantha	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NJD D. Hamilton	0.5	+390	-1000	Under
NJD E. Rodrigues	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NJD J. Bratt	0.5	+260	-325	Under
NJD J. Hughes	0.5	+200	-275	Under
DAL J. Robertson	0.5	+140	-190	Under
NJD L. Evangelista	0.5	+310	-450	Under
NJD L. Hughes	0.5	+350	-525	Under
DAL M. Heiskanen	0.5	+240	-275	Under
DAL M. Rantanen	0.5	+150	-200	Under
NJD N. Hischier	0.5	+300	-325	Under
DAL R. Hintz	0.5	+260	-325	Under
NJD T. Meier	0.5	+390	-1000	Under
DAL W. Johnston	0.5	+210	-225	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
DAL C. DeSmith	24.5	-114	-110	22	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
DAL M. Heiskanen	1.5	-200	–	1	Under
DAL T. Myers	1.5	-130	–	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.7, DAL 3.0	NJD 5, DAL 1
Total goals	5.7	6
Shots on goal	NJD 26.6, DAL 25.6	NJD 27, DAL 18
Win chance	DAL 56%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.1	3	1.05	0	37%	0
NJD J. Hughes	3.1	6	0.95	2	31%	1
NJD T. Meier	2.7	0	0.47	1	23%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	1	0.90	0	35%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.3	3	0.47	1	12%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.2	2	0.56	2	11%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.2	0	1.10	0	34%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	2	0.78	0	28%	0
NJD L. Evangelista	2.0	1	0.56	1	17%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	0	0.74	0	12%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.0	3	0.62	2	25%	2
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.9	1	0.42	1	17%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.9	1	0.53	0	11%	0
NJD J. Bratt	1.8	0	0.72	1	21%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.8	1	0.57	0	23%	0
NJD E. Rodrigues	1.7	2	0.39	0	14%	0
NJD A. Lombardi	1.5	1	0.24	0	8%	0
DAL A. Hyry	1.4	1	0.31	0	16%	0
DAL J. Kiviranta	1.4	4	0.27	0	13%	0
NJD A. Mantha	1.3	1	0.44	1	18%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.2	3	0.28	0	13%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.2	0	0.25	1	6%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.2	0	0.43	0	16%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.2	1	0.37	0	14%	0
NJD J. Boqvist	1.0	2	0.25	1	11%	1
DAL T. Myers	1.0	0	0.18	1	3%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.0	2	0.25	0	4%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.9	1	0.30	1	13%	1
DAL C. Blackwell	0.9	0	0.18	1	8%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.8	1	0.17	1	3%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	0	0.17	0	6%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.7	0	0.19	0	3%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.6	0	0.13	0	4%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.5	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.