Game Recap: NJD 4, FLA 1, November 12, 2024

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Game Recap

NJD4

FinalTue, Nov 12, 2024Every game that night

FLA1

NJD beat FLA 4-1, with the chances close: 3.30 expected goals to 3.04. FLA outshot NJD 35 to 24. D. Hamilton led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). U. Balinskis had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Markstrom stopped 34 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	1	2	4
FLA	0	1	0	1

1st 8:30NJDJ. Hughes0.17 xG
2nd 8:41FLAS. ReinhartPP0.06 xG
2nd 17:29NJDT. Meier0.17 xG
3rd 15:07NJDP. Cotter0.07 xG
3rd 18:58NJDO. PalatEN0.89 xG

Team Stats

NJDFLA

24Shots on goal35

3.30Expected goals3.04

46Shot attempts78

205v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play1/3

25Hits36

21Blocked shots9

15Penalty minutes11

18Giveaways14

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.30 xGFLA 3.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD24 on goal, 4 scored

FLA35 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Bratt	LW	0	2	2	2	2	1	+2	0	16:08	0:40
J. Hughes	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	19:08	1:17
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	4	1	2	+1	0	18:44	1:10
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	17:59	0:40
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	4	2	3	+1	0	17:55	1:07
O. Palat	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+2	0	14:32	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	2	13:57	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	4	17:14	0:40
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	15:06	1:11
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:55	0:12
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:14	0:43
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	7:11	0:09
D. Hamilton	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	+2	0	16:17	0:53
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	22:08	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	+2	0	23:39	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	2	22:05	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	20:13	1:08
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	7	14:15	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	35	34	1	.971	60:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Barkov	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	-1	0	24:05	3:05
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	2	23:54	3:15
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	6	2	0	-3	0	22:17	3:03
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	19:46	1:49
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	5	2	0	-3	2	18:12	3:04
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	15:53	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:51	0:00
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-3	0	14:20	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-2	0	13:07	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:18	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5:59	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	5	5:41	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	1	1	4	2	0	-2	0	15:27	1:27
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	22:13	0:11
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	21:05	0:11
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	20:47	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-2	0	18:48	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:15	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	23	20	3	.870	58:02	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEvan Rodrigues NJD First game back in South Florida, his team until Mar 20260 SOG
Old teamJacob Markstrom FLA First game against NJD since he left (his team until Apr 2026)34 saves on 35, the win
Old teamJesper Boqvist NJD First game back in South Florida, his team until Apr 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.9, FLA 3.4	NJD 4, FLA 1
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	NJD 27.1, FLA 30.7	NJD 24, FLA 35
Win chance	FLA 59%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.5	1	0.98	1	34%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	3.0	6	0.85	0	34%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.9	5	1.01	0	31%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.6	4	0.65	1	29%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	2	0.58	2	13%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.6	2	0.98	1	40%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	2	0.84	1	28%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	2	0.78	2	25%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.2	3	1.03	1	29%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.1	1	0.67	0	22%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	0	0.54	0	20%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.8	2	0.50	0	11%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	1	0.44	0	10%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.6	4	0.48	1	23%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.6	1	0.51	0	20%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	0	0.22	0	5%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.5	1	0.37	0	16%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.3	2	0.41	0	7%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	3	0.41	0	16%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.2	1	0.35	1	15%	1
NJD O. Palat	1.2	4	0.37	1	15%	1
FLA A. Greer	1.2	0	0.25	0	11%	0
FLA T. Nosek	1.1	1	0.28	0	9%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.1	1	0.36	0	16%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	2	0.25	0	4%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.1	1	0.29	0	5%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	0	0.24	0	6%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	0	0.21	1	4%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.0	2	0.22	0	11%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.0	1	0.26	0	5%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.9	4	0.21	1	3%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.24	0	4%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.8	0	0.24	0	11%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.7	0	0.13	0	7%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.6	0	0.16	0	8%	0
NJD K. MacDermid	0.4	0	0.07	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.