Game Recap: NJD 6, FLA 2, November 14, 2024

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Game Recap

NJD6

FinalThu, Nov 14, 2024Every game that night

FLA2

NJD beat FLA 6-2, with the chances close: 3.21 expected goals to 2.47. J. Bratt scored three for NJD. U. Balinskis had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Allen stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	2	2	2	6
FLA	1	1	0	2

1st 10:01NJDS. Noesen0.23 xG
1st 12:13FLAJ. Boqvist0.12 xG
1st 19:58NJDJ. BrattPP0.15 xG
2nd 4:45FLAS. Reinhart0.08 xG
2nd 5:56NJDD. MercerPP0.39 xG
2nd 19:49NJDS. NoesenPP0.13 xG
3rd 3:50NJDJ. Bratt0.04 xG
3rd 14:48NJDJ. BrattEN0.55 xG

Team Stats

NJDFLA

29Shots on goal27

3.21Expected goals2.47

49Shot attempts59

215v5 shots on goal21

3/5Power play0/5

29Hits45

13Blocked shots10

17Penalty minutes17

16Giveaways14

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.21 xGFLA 2.47 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD29 on goal, 6 scored

FLA27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	0	3	3	3	1	0	+1	0	17:46	2:16
J. Bratt	LW	3	0	3	5	1	0	+2	0	17:36	1:57
J. Hughes	C	0	3	3	0	1	0	0	2	17:12	2:02
S. Noesen	RW	2	0	2	3	3	0	0	2	15:48	1:23
D. Mercer	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	19:00	0:56
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	17:39	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	14:36	0:03
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	7	0	-1	2	13:53	0:17
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:02	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	10:49	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:55	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5:57	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	2	18:34	2:00
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	17:56	0:19
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	2	3	5	0	0	22:07	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	20:54	0:22
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	20:30	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	2	18:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	27	25	2	.926	60:00	Win
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	19:34	4:47
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	-2	0	18:19	4:47
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	18:18	2:56
A. Barkov	C	0	1	1	3	4	2	-2	0	18:03	4:47
J. Boqvist	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	2	14:22	0:03
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:25	2:10
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	17:23	2:21
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	4	16:42	4:47
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:46	0:37
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	10:18	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	10:00	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	5	6:55	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	20:05	2:10
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	19:58	4:47
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:56	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	19:33	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	2	19:12	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:52	2:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	28	23	5	.821	57:57	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEvan Rodrigues NJD First game back in South Florida, his team until Mar 20260 SOG
Old teamJacob Markstrom FLA First game against NJD since he left (his team until Apr 2026)0 saves on 0
Old teamJesper Boqvist NJD First game back in South Florida, his team until Apr 20261 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.8, FLA 3.4	NJD 6, FLA 2
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	NJD 26.8, FLA 31.0	NJD 29, FLA 27
Win chance	FLA 59%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.4	0	0.96	3	34%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	3.2	1	0.88	0	35%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.0	0	1.01	1	31%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	3	1.01	1	41%	1
NJD T. Meier	2.7	5	0.66	0	30%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.5	2	0.57	1	12%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	3	0.82	3	28%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.4	2	0.65	1	27%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.4	5	0.78	3	24%	3
FLA A. Barkov	2.3	3	1.07	1	30%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.1	3	0.66	0	22%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	0	0.52	0	20%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.9	2	0.49	0	11%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	0	0.43	0	10%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.6	2	0.48	1	22%	1
NJD S. Noesen	1.6	3	0.52	2	20%	2
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	1	0.23	0	5%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.5	1	0.37	0	16%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.4	3	0.41	1	7%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	1	0.40	0	16%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	0	0.38	0	15%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.2	1	0.36	0	16%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	1	0.24	0	4%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.1	3	0.35	1	16%	1
FLA D. Kulikov	1.1	1	0.28	0	5%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.1	0	0.25	0	6%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.0	0	0.22	0	10%	0
FLA T. Nosek	1.0	1	0.25	0	8%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	2	0.22	0	4%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.0	1	0.25	0	5%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	4	0.23	0	3%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.23	0	4%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.8	1	0.23	0	10%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.6	1	0.12	0	6%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.6	0	0.16	0	8%	0
NJD K. MacDermid	0.4	0	0.08	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.