NYR beat NJD 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.46 expected goals to 3.74. NYR outshot NJD 32 to 23. A. Fox led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Trocheck had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. I. Shesterkin stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 12:05NYRA. FoxPP0.03 xG
- 2nd 4:03NJDJ. Hughes0.09 xG
- 2nd 8:28NJDJ. Bratt0.03 xG
- 2nd 17:13NYRA. PanarinPP0.25 xG
- OT 2:48NYRS. Carrick0.12 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 3.74 xGNYR 2.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:06 | 5:21 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:41 | 5:10 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:40 | 1:44 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:35 | 5:08 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:11 | 2:37 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 | 4:15 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 1:47 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:34 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:36 | 0:03 |
| K. MacDermid | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21:28 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:18 | 5:17 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:34 | 1:38 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:01 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 32 | 29 | 3 | .906 | 62:48 | OT loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:57 | 2:33 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:58 | 2:33 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 | 2:33 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:51 | 2:33 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Kaliyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 22:42 | 2:33 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:24 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:17 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 62:48 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.2, NYR 3.2 | NJD 2, NYR 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 31.4, NYR 28.0 | NJD 23, NYR 32 |
| Win chance | NYR 50% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.8 | 3 | 1.04 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.0 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.8 | 4 | 1.13 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.7 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.5 | 4 | 0.68 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.5 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.4 | 4 | 0.92 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.4 | 5 | 0.81 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.2 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.1 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.7 | 3 | 0.85 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.6 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.6 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.5 | 4 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR A. Kaliyev | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 3 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD K. MacDermid | 0.3 | 1 | 0.06 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.