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Game Recap
NJD4
FinalTue, Dec 9, 2025Every game that night
OTT3

NJD beat OTT 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.61 expected goals to 3.79. A. Gritsyuk led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. Greig had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Markstrom stopped 35 of 38.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NJD2114
OTT2103
  1. 1st 1:36OTTD. BathersonPP0.62 xG
  2. 1st 5:09NJDS. Nemec0.06 xG
  3. 1st 12:59OTTT. StützlePP0.07 xG
  4. 1st 17:59NJDA. Gritsyuk0.13 xG
  5. 2nd 4:21NJDP. Cotter0.29 xG
  6. 2nd 10:35OTTD. BathersonPP0.20 xG
  7. 3rd 12:24NJDC. Glass0.17 xG

Team Stats

NJDOTT
32Shots on goal38
2.61Expected goals3.79
54Shot attempts76
225v5 shots on goal30
0/3Power play3/3
15Hits22
15Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways16
5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.61 xGOTT 3.79 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdOTT goal, 1:36NJD goal, 5:09OTT goal, 12:59NJD goal, 17:59NJD goal, 4:21OTT goal, 10:35NJD goal, 12:24

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD31 on goal, 4 scored
OTT37 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. BrownRW033001+3015:360:00
A. GritsyukRW123300+3014:332:19
C. GlassC112400+3012:340:00
P. CotterLW101300+107:410:00
N. HischierC0003010221:573:41
J. BrattLW000000+1020:443:41
D. MercerC0001000020:223:29
T. MeierRW0004100019:574:23
O. PalatLW0002100015:232:19
S. NoesenRW0001210213:022:31
L. GlendeningC0000230010:480:00
A. CrookshankC000000026:420:00
S. NemecD101501+2019:354:27
L. HughesD000400+3022:271:33
J. SiegenthalerD0000350021:040:00
D. HamiltonD0001110020:231:37
B. DillonD000042+2220:140:00
C. WhiteD000110+1012:050:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Markstrom38353.92159:22Win
J. Allen000–0:00

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. StützleC112120-3023:402:15
D. CozensC022100-1020:062:13
B. TkachukLW022630-1219:192:13
D. BathersonRW202321-1019:152:14
C. GirouxRW0002110020:141:16
R. GreigC0005100016:370:00
M. AmadioRW000300-1016:150:00
F. ZetterlundLW000130-1012:371:18
N. CousinsC0000400010:130:00
D. PerronLW000120-108:321:17
L. EllerC000001-107:130:00
S. HallidayC000000-105:011:18
J. SandersonD011403-1028:552:16
A. ZubD0001140221:020:00
J. SpenceD000400-3018:331:15
N. JensenD000211-1016:440:00
T. KlevenD000420-2216:310:00
N. MatinpaloD000000-1213:320:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Ullmark32284.87557:41Loss
L. Meriläinen000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1T. Meier13:54N. Hischier14:35S. Noesen10:20
Line 2O. Palat12:29D. Mercer13:41J. Bratt15:25
Line 3C. Brown11:38C. Glass11:32A. Gritsyuk11:03
Line 4L. Glendening7:46A. Crookshank6:42P. Cotter7:20
Pair 1B. Dillon17:04L. Hughes17:08
Pair 2J. Siegenthaler16:48D. Hamilton14:57
Pair 3C. White11:39S. Nemec13:39

OTT

Line 1D. Cozens14:42D. Batherson14:08B. Tkachuk14:23
Line 2M. Amadio14:38R. Greig13:10C. Giroux12:57
Line 3T. Stützle14:18F. Zetterlund11:19N. Cousins10:13
Line 4D. Perron7:15L. Eller5:28S. Halliday3:43
Pair 1J. Sanderson18:01A. Zub15:23
Pair 2T. Kleven15:09J. Spence16:12
Pair 3N. Jensen15:27N. Matinpalo11:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNJD 2.8, OTT 3.0NJD 4, OTT 3
Total goals5.77
Shots on goalNJD 26.2, OTT 27.8NJD 32, OTT 38
Win chanceOTT 53%NJD won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
OTT B. Tkachuk3.860.78232%0
NJD T. Meier3.140.80034%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.510.53013%0
OTT J. Sanderson2.540.70112%0
NJD J. Bratt2.400.97026%0
OTT D. Batherson2.430.81228%2
OTT D. Cozens2.310.63224%0
OTT T. Stützle2.310.93229%1
NJD N. Hischier2.330.88031%0
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.230.41317%1
OTT F. Zetterlund1.910.41019%0
NJD D. Mercer1.810.55024%0
NJD L. Hughes1.840.4806%0
OTT C. Giroux1.620.63021%0
NJD C. Brown1.500.40316%0
NJD C. Glass1.540.31213%1
OTT D. Perron1.410.49020%0
NJD S. Nemec1.450.41111%1
OTT J. Spence1.440.4606%0
OTT R. Greig1.450.36015%0
OTT M. Amadio1.430.42020%0
NJD S. Noesen1.310.32015%0
OTT T. Kleven1.240.2004%0
NJD A. Crookshank1.200.20010%0
OTT L. Eller1.100.26012%0
OTT S. Halliday1.100.1906%0
NJD O. Palat1.020.32014%0
OTT A. Zub1.010.2806%0
NJD P. Cotter1.030.24113%1
OTT N. Matinpalo1.000.1603%0
OTT N. Cousins0.900.23010%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.900.1403%0
OTT N. Jensen0.720.1903%0
NJD B. Dillon0.700.2004%0
NJD L. Glendening0.600.1207%0
NJD C. White0.510.1001%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.