Game Recap: NJD 1, OTT 4, January 31, 2026

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Game Recap

NJD1

FinalSat, Jan 31, 2026Every game that night

OTT4

OTT beat NJD 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.91 expected goals to 1.62. B. Tkachuk led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). D. Hamilton had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. L. Ullmark stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	0	0	1
OTT	1	0	3	4

1st 13:38OTTB. TkachukPP0.06 xG
1st 18:16NJDT. Meier0.08 xG
3rd 0:37OTTD. CozensPP0.02 xG
3rd 17:53OTTT. Stützle0.17 xG
3rd 18:41OTTS. PintoEN0.77 xG

Team Stats

NJDOTT

27Shots on goal34

1.62Expected goals3.91

56Shot attempts54

215v5 shots on goal28

0/5Power play2/3

22Hits24

9Blocked shots18

8Penalty minutes12

17Giveaways16

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 1.62 xGOTT 3.91 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD25 on goal, 1 scored

OTT34 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Brown	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	22:37	7:28
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	3	5	0	0	0	22:25	7:24
C. Glass	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	15:18	0:06
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	22:27	7:25
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	20:13	7:21
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:03	2:11
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:00	2:32
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	14:15	2:33
L. Hameenaho	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:56	2:19
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:40	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	7:56	0:05
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5:44	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	24:58	7:22
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	19:25	2:42
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	18:29	0:23
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	18:04	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	15:20	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	13:20	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	33	30	3	.909	59:17	Loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	2	3	3	2	1	0	0	13:00	3:05
T. Stützle	C	1	1	2	5	1	0	+1	0	20:27	3:01
M. Amadio	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	20:25	0:00
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	18:34	0:31
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	14:53	3:02
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	4	14:04	3:02
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	13:44	0:32
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:58	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	14:16	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:25	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	7:03	0:00
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:47	0:28
J. Sanderson	D	0	2	2	2	0	3	+2	0	26:09	3:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+2	0	23:28	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	5	3	2	0	4	19:33	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	16:47	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	15:59	0:33
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:28	0:31

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1C. Brown13:14T. Meier13:17C. Glass13:43

Line 2N. Hischier12:42A. Gritsyuk14:28L. Hameenaho10:37

Line 3E. Dadonov11:42D. Mercer10:37J. Bratt10:58

Line 4M. Tsyplakov7:32P. Cotter8:04L. Glendening4:56

Pair 1J. Siegenthaler15:04J. Kovacevic14:35

Pair 2B. Pesce15:40D. Hamilton15:20

Pair 3B. Dillon10:46S. Nemec15:25

OTT

Line 1N. Cousins14:16M. Amadio14:13S. Pinto13:59

Line 2C. Giroux12:06T. Stützle12:41D. Batherson11:04

Line 3R. Greig12:17D. Cozens10:43B. Tkachuk9:36

Line 4L. Eller7:31F. Zetterlund7:03S. Halliday5:19

Pair 1T. Kleven16:30J. Spence14:10

Pair 2N. Jensen14:51T. Chabot13:37

Pair 3J. Sanderson14:05A. Zub14:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.9, OTT 3.3	NJD 1, OTT 4
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	NJD 25.5, OTT 28.7	NJD 27, OTT 34
Win chance	OTT 57%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.3	3	0.77	3	30%	1
NJD T. Meier	2.9	3	0.63	1	29%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	3	0.88	0	32%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.4	7	0.57	0	14%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	5	0.92	2	28%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	2	0.65	2	11%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.1	2	0.90	0	25%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.0	1	0.45	0	16%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.0	2	0.58	1	21%	1
OTT D. Batherson	1.9	0	0.72	1	25%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.9	3	0.58	1	25%	1
OTT T. Chabot	1.9	1	0.54	0	11%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.7	1	0.48	0	18%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	1	0.64	1	20%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.5	1	0.44	0	20%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	3	0.36	0	16%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	2	0.49	1	17%	0
NJD L. Hameenaho	1.4	1	0.49	0	16%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.4	3	0.34	1	14%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.2	0	0.35	0	10%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	1	0.41	1	19%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.2	0	0.25	0	5%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.2	5	0.21	0	4%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.1	2	0.32	0	5%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	3	0.31	0	12%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.1	0	0.42	0	12%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	2	0.29	0	5%	0
NJD E. Dadonov	1.0	2	0.34	0	14%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.9	0	0.20	0	9%	0
NJD M. Tsyplakov	0.9	0	0.23	0	8%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	0	0.17	0	3%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.8	0	0.25	0	4%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.8	2	0.19	0	4%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.7	0	0.20	0	11%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.22	0	5%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.5	0	0.09	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.