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Game Recap
NJD3
PHI6
PHI beat NJD 6-3, with the chances close: 4.13 expected goals to 4.11. N. Hischier led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Bratt had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. D. Vladar stopped 32 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| PHI | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 7:37NJDT. MeierPP0.73 xG
- 1st 9:00PHIN. Cates0.22 xG
- 1st 12:06PHIM. Michkov0.14 xG
- 1st 12:15PHIT. Foerster0.11 xG
- 1st 12:32PHIT. Foerster0.01 xG
- 2nd 11:42PHIB. Brink0.07 xG
- 2nd 16:16NJDN. Hischier0.20 xG
- 3rd 13:27NJDN. Hischier0.09 xG
- 3rd 15:21PHIT. Zegras0.23 xG
Team Stats
NJDPHI
35Shots on goal29
4.11Expected goals4.13
70Shot attempts48
265v5 shots on goal23
1/2Power play0/4
28Hits23
4Blocked shots10
12Penalty minutes8
14Giveaways13
2Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 4.11 xGPHI 4.13 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:50 | 3:19 |
| N. Hischier | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:11 | 3:09 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:43 | 2:34 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:25 | 2:10 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:10 |
| A. Gritsyuk | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:45 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:43 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Lammikko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:29 | 0:43 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:05 | 0:26 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:26 | 2:36 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 29 | 23 | 6 | .793 | 59:32 | Loss |
| J. Markstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Cates | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:28 | 4:14 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:20 | 4:27 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:16 | 1:51 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:27 | 5:00 |
| T. Zegras | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 4:30 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:12 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 15:49 | 3:22 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:34 | 3:12 |
| B. Brink | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:44 | 2:43 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:01 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:01 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 23:22 | 4:29 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:42 | 1:31 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 2:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:15 | 2:22 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:05 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NJD
Line 1T. Meier15:48J. Bratt15:50N. Hischier15:06
Line 2A. Gritsyuk13:09D. Mercer14:44C. Brown12:30
Line 3P. Cotter10:48S. Noesen9:30L. Glendening8:36
Line 4E. Dadonov9:42J. Lammikko9:23O. Palat9:09
Pair 2J. Siegenthaler14:59D. Hamilton16:28
Pair 3B. Dillon14:17D. Cholowski15:08
PHI
Line 1C. Dvorak13:36T. Zegras12:09O. Tippett12:20
Line 2T. Konecny12:46N. Cates11:26T. Foerster12:11
Line 3G. Hathaway11:23R. Abols12:12N. Deslauriers11:38
Line 4S. Couturier11:12M. Michkov12:25B. Brink11:01
Pair 1T. Sanheim18:14C. York17:23
Pair 2E. Andrae15:51J. Drysdale17:43
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.1, PHI 2.8 | NJD 3, PHI 6 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 25.8, PHI 26.7 | NJD 35, PHI 29 |
| Win chance | NJD 53% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD T. Meier | 2.9 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.5 | 0 | 0.60 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.3 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.2 | 5 | 0.90 | 3 | 32% | 2 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.2 | 6 | 0.96 | 3 | 26% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.2 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 2.1 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.1 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.9 | 3 | 0.53 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.8 | 1 | 0.55 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.8 | 5 | 0.64 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.6 | 4 | 0.51 | 3 | 19% | 1 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.5 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.4 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.1 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD E. Dadonov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.8 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD J. Lammikko | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD D. Cholowski | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.6 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD L. Glendening | 0.6 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.