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Game Recap
NJD0
TBL4
TBL beat NJD 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.36 expected goals to 2.21. A. Cirelli led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Meier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TBL | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
- 1st 14:27TBLN. Paul0.03 xG
- 3rd 0:39TBLD. Raddysh0.03 xG
- 3rd 7:40TBLV. HedmanPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 19:48TBLA. CirelliEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
NJDTBL
29Shots on goal26
2.21Expected goals3.36
60Shot attempts53
195v5 shots on goal19
0/4Power play1/3
23Hits15
11Blocked shots19
6Penalty minutes8
12Giveaways15
4Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 2.21 xGTBL 3.36 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:10 | 5:07 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:59 | 6:01 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 18:54 | 2:48 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:30 | 5:03 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 5:11 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 | 5:02 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:03 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 14:59 | 2:10 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:35 | 2:24 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:07 | 0:00 |
| K. MacDermid | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:28 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:42 | 2:48 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 20:31 | 5:13 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:01 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 57:58 | Loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:10 | 3:32 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:49 | 3:24 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:39 | 3:35 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 21:38 | 3:38 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:01 | 1:34 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:32 | 1:23 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 1:21 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 1:20 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:44 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 22:08 | 3:33 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 10:29 | 1:30 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:38 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 29 | 29 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:34 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.2, TBL 3.5 | NJD 0, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 28.4, TBL 28.4 | NJD 29, TBL 26 |
| Win chance | TBL 55% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.5 | 6 | 1.08 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.4 | 2 | 1.66 | 2 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.1 | 4 | 1.07 | 2 | 39% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.8 | 6 | 0.72 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.6 | 3 | 0.90 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.5 | 2 | 0.93 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.4 | 4 | 0.60 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.4 | 3 | 0.98 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.3 | 1 | 0.87 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.7 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.7 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.7 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 2 | 0.69 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.5 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.5 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD K. MacDermid | 0.4 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.