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Game Recap
NJD1
TBL5
TBL beat NJD 5-1, with the chances close: 3.46 expected goals to 3.19. J. Guentzel scored three for TBL. J. Guentzel had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TBL | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 11:40TBLJ. Guentzel0.09 xG
- 1st 19:38TBLN. Kucherov0.12 xG
- 2nd 10:38TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 17:47NJDN. Hischier0.44 xG
- 3rd 4:49TBLD. Raddysh0.06 xG
- 3rd 7:48TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.09 xG
Team Stats
NJDTBL
32Shots on goal29
3.19Expected goals3.46
54Shot attempts54
265v5 shots on goal19
0/4Power play2/3
17Hits14
11Blocked shots7
8Penalty minutes8
13Giveaways11
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 3.19 xGTBL 3.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 1:57 |
| A. Gritsyuk | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:30 | 3:36 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 2:01 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:06 | 2:00 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:28 | 2:00 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:21 | 4:37 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:21 | 2:30 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 2:50 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 3:30 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 2:12 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 1:22 |
| J. Lammikko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:56 | 1:59 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:11 | 3:26 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:53 | 4:37 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:18 | 1:23 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 29 | 24 | 5 | .828 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:09 | 4:20 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:07 | 4:20 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:54 | 4:20 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 4:20 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:00 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:14 | 0:00 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:14 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24:13 | 3:52 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:08 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:28 | 0:00 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:28 |
| S. Santini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 32 | 31 | 1 | .969 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NJD
Line 1N. Hischier13:28J. Bratt13:23A. Gritsyuk12:54
Line 3L. Glendening9:37P. Cotter11:30E. Dadonov9:55
Line 4O. Palat9:20S. Noesen10:44J. Lammikko11:05
Pair 2J. Siegenthaler16:37S. Nemec16:18
Pair 3D. Hamilton13:21D. Cholowski11:55
TBL
Line 1A. Cirelli13:52B. Hagel16:04N. Kucherov17:47
Line 2J. Guentzel12:58B. Point14:34G. Goncalves11:07
Line 3Y. Gourde11:18D. James9:47Z. Girgensons8:01
Line 4J. Finley8:14C. Douglas6:14O. Bjorkstrand10:05
Pair 1D. Raddysh18:09J. Moser16:56
Pair 2C. D'Astous18:21E. Lilleberg17:30
Pair 3S. Santini12:01D. Carlile11:42
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 2.9, TBL 3.3 | NJD 1, TBL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 26.6, TBL 27.7 | NJD 32, TBL 29 |
| Win chance | TBL 58% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD T. Meier | 3.2 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.9 | 4 | 1.42 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.8 | 7 | 1.03 | 3 | 39% | 3 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.3 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.3 | 4 | 0.85 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.3 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 2.1 | 4 | 0.40 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.0 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 2.0 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.9 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 4 | 0.63 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 3 | 9% | 1 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.4 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.4 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD E. Dadonov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.0 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 1.0 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL J. Finley | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL S. Santini | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Lammikko | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD D. Cholowski | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD L. Glendening | 0.5 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL C. Douglas | 0.5 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.