Game Recap: NJD 5, TOR 2, October 21, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD5

FinalTue, Oct 21, 2025Every game that night

TOR2

NJD beat TOR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.98 expected goals to 3.08. NJD outshot TOR 35 to 25. J. Hughes scored three for NJD. D. Hamilton had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Allen stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	4	1	5
TOR	1	1	0	2

1st 6:36TORJ. Tavares0.35 xG
2nd 1:27NJDJ. Hughes0.08 xG
2nd 3:20NJDC. GlassPP0.33 xG
2nd 4:54NJDB. Dillon0.14 xG
2nd 7:03TORM. Maccelli0.18 xG
2nd 16:17NJDJ. Hughes0.10 xG
3rd 19:30NJDJ. HughesEN0.74 xG

Team Stats

NJDTOR

35Shots on goal25

3.98Expected goals3.08

61Shot attempts57

245v5 shots on goal17

1/2Power play0/2

21Hits22

17Blocked shots16

11Penalty minutes9

25Giveaways17

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.98 xGTOR 3.08 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD33 on goal, 5 scored

TOR24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	3	0	3	6	0	1	+3	0	18:53	2:45
J. Bratt	LW	0	3	3	2	2	0	+3	0	15:20	2:42
T. Meier	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:33	1:07
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	12:56	1:11
C. Glass	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	2	12:19	1:01
L. Glendening	C	0	1	1	1	3	2	+1	0	12:13	0:00
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:52	2:46
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	17:23	2:43
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	17:10	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	11:51	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	11:43	1:08
B. Halonen	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	5	8:52	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+2	0	21:49	0:09
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	20:53	1:01
B. Dillon	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	16:33	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	15:07	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	6	3	3	0	0	23:06	2:52
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	2	19:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	25	23	2	.920	60:00	Win
N. Daws	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	18:41	2:38
J. Tavares	C	1	1	2	5	1	1	+1	0	17:40	2:43
M. Maccelli	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	15:16	1:22
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	-2	2	21:51	2:44
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	19:54	2:41
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:46	0:00
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	14:33	1:16
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:34	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	2	13:05	1:16
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	11:54	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:52	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	9:26	1:20
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	24:02	1:19
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	24:30	2:41
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	21:03	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	20:23	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	5	18:21	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	5:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	34	30	4	.882	58:19	Loss
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1N. Hischier15:03T. Meier14:44D. Mercer13:19

Line 2C. Brown14:05C. Glass10:49A. Gritsyuk11:43

Line 3J. Bratt10:17J. Hughes13:12O. Palat9:58

Line 4L. Glendening10:51B. Halonen8:50P. Cotter11:51

Pair 1L. Hughes18:21B. Pesce17:12

Pair 2D. Hamilton16:58J. Siegenthaler17:21

Pair 3B. Dillon12:59S. Nemec14:37

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews15:26M. Knies15:07M. Domi11:47

Line 2J. Tavares12:24M. Maccelli13:14W. Nylander13:38

Line 3N. Roy12:03D. Joshua11:09B. McMann11:21

Line 4C. Jarnkrok11:00S. Lorentz10:09N. Robertson8:06

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson20:21S. Benoit16:45

Pair 2M. Rielly18:39B. Carlo18:51

Pair 3J. McCabe17:10C. Tanev5:00

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDougie Hamilton NJD Plays in his hometown6 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.9, TOR 3.3	NJD 5, TOR 2
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	NJD 26.7, TOR 27.3	NJD 35, TOR 25
Win chance	TOR 56%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.8	3	1.13	0	45%	0
NJD J. Hughes	3.5	6	0.99	3	33%	3
NJD T. Meier	3.1	1	0.71	1	31%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.7	1	1.02	2	37%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.7	6	0.59	0	15%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.4	5	0.80	2	32%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	2	0.87	0	30%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.2	2	0.86	3	24%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.2	3	0.76	0	29%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.0	1	0.43	0	21%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	1	0.66	0	12%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	4	0.50	0	23%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.6	2	0.54	1	8%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	2	0.33	0	17%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	0	0.36	0	14%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	1	0.29	1	6%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.4	3	0.31	1	12%	1
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.4	2	0.33	1	10%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.3	1	0.45	0	14%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.3	2	0.41	1	13%	1
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	1	0.36	1	7%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	0	0.37	0	15%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.1	1	0.35	0	14%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.15	0	4%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.0	0	0.23	1	5%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.35	0	6%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	0	0.16	0	4%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.0	3	0.22	0	12%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	1	0.29	0	14%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	0	0.22	0	9%	0
TOR D. Joshua	0.9	1	0.29	0	15%	0
NJD B. Halonen	0.8	0	0.14	0	8%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.14	0	3%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	2	0.22	1	4%	1
TOR C. Tanev	0.7	0	0.23	0	4%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	1	0.12	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.