Game Recap: NJD 2, UTA 1, December 19, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD2

FinalFri, Dec 19, 2025Every game that night

UTA1

NJD beat UTA 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.40 expected goals to 2.91. UTA outshot NJD 33 to 22. N. Hischier led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). N. Hischier had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Markstrom stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	1	1	2
UTA	1	0	0	1

1st 9:35UTAD. ButPP0.11 xG
2nd 11:21NJDC. Brown0.13 xG
3rd 4:20NJDS. NoesenPP0.41 xG

Team Stats

NJDUTA

22Shots on goal33

2.40Expected goals2.91

48Shot attempts73

115v5 shots on goal23

1/5Power play1/4

12Hits20

26Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes10

13Giveaways9

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.40 xGUTA 2.91 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD21 on goal, 2 scored

UTA33 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	0	2	2	5	0	1	+1	0	22:08	5:26
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	22:16	3:25
S. Noesen	RW	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	15:25	5:24
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	20:43	5:23
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	18:52	2:48
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:23	2:48
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	16:29	4:47
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:53	2:46
J. Lammikko	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:29	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:02	0:00
A. Crookshank	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	6:37	0:00
X. Parent	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	5:37	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	20:33	5:24
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	21:01	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	+1	2	20:06	2:49
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	20:01	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	17:07	0:00
C. White	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	33	32	1	.970	59:35	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. But	LW	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	2	14:06	1:55
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:18	4:51
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:12	5:08
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:59	5:07
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	17:33	5:30
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	15:17	2:53
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	15:06	0:00
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:21	1:38
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	2	14:08	1:06
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	13:34	0:11
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:14	0:00
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:22	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	1	1	4	0	3	-1	0	19:00	1:10
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	2	25:40	5:37
J. Marino	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:12	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	19:55	0:05
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	16:08	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	22	20	2	.909	57:41	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Bratt13:47N. Hischier13:44D. Mercer14:15

Line 2C. Brown14:10C. Glass13:20O. Palat10:33

Line 3J. Lammikko11:14P. Cotter12:17S. Noesen9:36

Line 4L. Glendening5:54A. Crookshank6:37X. Parent5:37

Pair 1D. Hamilton14:59J. Siegenthaler17:25

Pair 2L. Hughes14:22B. Pesce14:47

Pair 3B. Dillon13:21C. White12:17

UTA

Line 1N. Schmaltz12:58J. Peterka12:51C. Keller13:56

Line 2M. Carcone12:29D. But12:02J. McBain11:38

Line 3B. Hayton11:25D. Guenther11:16L. Crouse9:19

Line 4L. O'Brien7:22K. Stenlund8:50A. Kerfoot6:48

Pair 1N. Schmidt16:40J. Marino16:35

Pair 2M. Sergachev14:45S. Durzi16:34

Pair 3I. Cole10:42N. DeSimone12:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.7, UTA 3.1	NJD 2, UTA 1
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	NJD 25.9, UTA 29.3	NJD 22, UTA 33
Win chance	UTA 57%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA D. Guenther	2.8	4	0.77	0	30%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.7	2	0.93	0	31%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	5	0.49	0	13%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.4	1	0.84	0	27%	0
UTA J. Peterka	2.3	2	0.79	0	29%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	5	0.84	2	31%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.2	0	0.91	0	25%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.1	1	0.53	1	8%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.9	2	0.63	0	11%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.9	1	0.44	0	20%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.8	4	0.45	0	23%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	3	0.50	0	23%	0
UTA D. But	1.7	2	0.22	1	10%	1
UTA B. Hayton	1.7	2	0.38	0	16%	0
UTA S. Durzi	1.7	4	0.44	1	9%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.6	0	0.35	0	14%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	1	0.46	1	18%	1
NJD S. Noesen	1.5	3	0.40	1	18%	1
NJD O. Palat	1.3	1	0.39	0	16%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.2	0	0.23	0	5%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.2	3	0.26	0	7%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.2	1	0.38	0	13%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.2	3	0.32	0	13%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	0	0.31	0	14%	0
UTA N. Schmidt	1.1	0	0.31	0	6%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	0	0.29	0	15%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	0	0.15	0	6%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	1	0.14	0	3%	0
NJD A. Crookshank	1.0	0	0.17	0	9%	0
UTA J. Marino	0.9	1	0.38	0	4%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.8	0	0.17	0	8%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.22	0	3%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.5	0	0.11	0	7%	0
NJD C. White	0.5	0	0.12	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.