Game Recap: NJD 3, WSH 2, November 23, 2024

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Game Recap

NJD3

FinalSat, Nov 23, 2024Every game that night

WSH2

NJD beat WSH 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.52 expected goals to 2.26. NJD outshot WSH 33 to 25. T. Tatar led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Hamilton had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Allen stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	1	2	0	3
WSH	1	0	1	2

1st 13:52WSHM. Roy0.01 xG
1st 16:31NJDT. TatarPP0.24 xG
2nd 7:08NJDB. Dillon0.01 xG
2nd 15:42NJDD. HamiltonPP0.09 xG
3rd 4:54WSHC. McMichaelPP0.27 xG

Team Stats

NJDWSH

33Shots on goal25

3.52Expected goals2.26

62Shot attempts77

195v5 shots on goal23

2/5Power play1/2

14Hits18

28Blocked shots17

11Penalty minutes17

10Giveaways14

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.52 xGWSH 2.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD33 on goal, 3 scored

WSH26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Tatar	LW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	9:30	0:21
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	21:46	5:32
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	17:31	5:01
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	14:12	0:41
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	20:13	5:36
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:37	1:10
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	17:09	4:46
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	16:16	1:28
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:35	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	+1	2	11:21	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	10:34	0:00
N. Foote	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:44	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:48	0:50
D. Hamilton	D	1	0	1	7	0	2	+1	0	19:22	5:24
B. Dillon	D	1	0	1	2	4	1	+1	0	14:16	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	0	6	0	0	24:57	0:21
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	-1	0	19:14	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	5	15:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	25	24	2	.960	60:00	Win
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McMichael	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	16:13	1:30
H. Lapierre	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	10:25	0:00
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:32	1:12
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:22	0:00
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	17:11	1:30
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:27	0:18
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:41	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	13:32	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	5	13:32	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	2	13:27	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:24	0:00
I. Miroshnichenko	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:56	0:00
M. Roy	D	1	0	1	2	6	1	+1	0	20:20	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	20:05	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	23:57	1:30
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	22:28	1:12
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	18:11	0:18
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	15:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	33	30	3	.909	58:16	Loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.0, WSH 3.1	NJD 3, WSH 2
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	NJD 28.3, WSH 27.4	NJD 33, WSH 25
Win chance	WSH 52%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.5	2	1.12	0	35%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.8	7	0.69	0	29%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.6	3	0.92	1	27%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.6	1	0.94	1	29%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	7	0.57	1	15%	1
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	2	0.62	0	27%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.2	2	0.58	1	27%	1
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	3	0.66	0	13%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.1	3	0.48	0	13%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.8	2	0.65	0	24%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.8	0	0.89	0	27%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	1	0.61	0	23%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	1	0.54	0	23%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.6	1	0.42	1	17%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.6	1	0.51	0	14%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	1	0.22	0	6%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.4	3	0.45	0	19%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.4	0	0.32	0	14%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.4	2	0.40	1	8%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.3	1	0.26	0	13%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	0	0.43	0	16%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	2	0.31	1	6%	1
WSH I. Miroshnichenko	1.3	0	0.28	0	12%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.2	3	0.29	0	3%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.2	2	0.38	0	16%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.2	2	0.27	0	13%	0
NJD N. Foote	1.1	0	0.32	0	15%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	1	0.39	0	19%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	0	0.23	0	7%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	1	0.40	1	7%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	0	0.26	0	7%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.9	0	0.33	1	12%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.9	2	0.29	2	12%	1
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	2	0.22	1	5%	1
NJD J. Dowling	0.6	0	0.17	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.