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Game Recap
NJD2
FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026Every game that night
WSH4

WSH beat NJD 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.50 expected goals to 3.91. A. Gritsyuk led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Gritsyuk had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. L. Thompson stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NJD1012
WSH1304
  1. 1st 10:04NJDA. Gritsyuk0.01 xG
  2. 1st 16:42WSHR. LeonardPP0.28 xG
  3. 2nd 1:16WSHI. Protas0.19 xG
  4. 2nd 4:36WSHD. Strome0.10 xG
  5. 2nd 11:14WSHB. Jenner0.21 xG
  6. 3rd 19:41NJDT. MeierPP0.18 xG

Team Stats

NJDWSH
31Shots on goal25
3.91Expected goals2.50
81Shot attempts42
245v5 shots on goal22
1/4Power play1/2
16Hits19
8Blocked shots22
4Penalty minutes8
12Giveaways20
1Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.91 xGWSH 2.50 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdNJD goal, 10:04WSH goal, 16:42WSH goal, 1:16WSH goal, 4:36WSH goal, 11:14NJD goal, 19:41

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD31 on goal, 2 scored
WSH25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. GritsyukRW1126100017:172:51
D. MercerC011150+1017:082:47
T. MeierRW101310-1015:032:10
J. BoqvistC0111000012:250:40
S. NoesenRW0110100010:120:24
J. HughesC000400-2022:424:19
N. HischierC0002300019:004:16
J. BrattLW000300-1018:493:59
E. RodriguesC000110-1015:254:05
A. ManthaRW0002000012:372:19
C. GlassC0003200011:370:22
A. LombardiC0000010010:540:22
L. HughesD000202-1223:293:59
D. HamiltonD0003020021:563:19
B. PesceD000002-1221:460:00
J. SiegenthalerD000011-1019:130:23
J. KovacevicD000010-2013:290:00
D. ChisholmD000000-1013:260:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Allen25214.84060:00Loss
N. Daws000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. TuchRW0113220218:082:23
D. StromeC101303+1018:021:59
B. JennerC1014110216:370:00
J. KyrouRW011101+1015:071:33
A. OvechkinLW011100+1013:572:18
R. LeonardRW1012100013:231:57
I. ProtasLW101310+1012:391:33
T. WilsonRW000132-1016:551:09
A. ProtasLW000023+1016:330:00
A. BeauvillierRW000010+1013:180:00
I. MiroshnichenkoLW000021+1012:341:13
J. BrodzinskiC000200008:340:00
V. DesharnaisD022001+2020:230:00
J. ChychrunD0111000024:021:49
M. FehérváryD011123+2022:300:01
C. HutsonD0002200018:291:45
T. LiljegrenD0001230417:500:00
J. HollD0000020013:440:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson31292.93560:00Win
C. Lindgren000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Bratt14:50J. Hughes18:22A. Gritsyuk14:26
Line 2D. Mercer12:49T. Meier11:58N. Hischier12:34
Line 3C. Glass10:12A. Lombardi10:32J. Boqvist11:45
Line 4S. Noesen9:48E. Rodrigues9:59A. Mantha10:18
Pair 1B. Pesce21:08L. Hughes18:52
Pair 2D. Hamilton16:21J. Siegenthaler16:36
Pair 3D. Chisholm13:26J. Kovacevic12:09

WSH

Line 1D. Strome16:03J. Kyrou13:34A. Tuch13:31
Line 2B. Jenner13:33A. Protas13:45T. Wilson11:25
Line 3A. Ovechkin11:39I. Miroshnichenko11:21I. Protas11:06
Line 4A. Beauvillier11:21J. Brodzinski8:34R. Leonard11:26
Pair 1J. Chychrun19:30T. Liljegren16:12
Pair 2M. Fehérváry17:48V. Desharnais15:34
Pair 3J. Holl12:59C. Hutson16:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 22 overs hit (50%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NJD J. Hughes3.5+110-1204Over
WSH A. Ovechkin2.5+110-1401Under
WSH A. Tuch2.5+140-1603Over
NJD D. Hamilton2.5+140-1653Over
NJD E. Rodrigues2.5+150-1881Under
WSH J. Chychrun2.5+100-1201Under
NJD L. Hughes2.5+160-2052Under
NJD N. Hischier2.5+140-1562Under
WSH R. Leonard2.5+140-1842Under
NJD T. Meier2.5-140+1253Over
NJD A. Gritsyuk1.5-135+1156Over
NJD A. Mantha1.5+115-1112Over
WSH A. Protas1.5-105-1100Under
WSH B. Jenner1.5+100-1154Over
WSH C. Hutson1.5-118+1002Over
NJD D. Mercer1.5+115-1401Under
WSH D. Strome1.5-115+1053Over
NJD J. Bratt1.5-170+1503Over
WSH J. Kyrou1.5-185+1351Under
NJD S. Noesen1.5+120-1750Under
WSH T. Wilson1.5-160+1301Under
WSH I. Protas0.5-175+1303Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNJD 2.9, WSH 3.1NJD 2, WSH 4
Total goals6.16
Shots on goalNJD 29.8, WSH 26.1NJD 31, WSH 25
Win chanceWSH 53%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.641.07033%0
NJD T. Meier2.930.53124%1
WSH A. Tuch2.630.84133%0
WSH J. Chychrun2.510.68120%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.430.48013%0
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.360.47218%1
WSH J. Kyrou2.310.70128%0
NJD L. Hughes2.220.58012%0
WSH A. Ovechkin2.210.66128%0
NJD N. Hischier2.220.69026%0
NJD J. Bratt2.130.81023%0
NJD E. Rodrigues2.010.44016%0
WSH B. Jenner2.040.52123%1
WSH T. Wilson1.910.74029%0
WSH R. Leonard1.920.53119%1
NJD D. Mercer1.810.41118%0
WSH D. Strome1.730.81126%1
NJD A. Lombardi1.700.2809%0
WSH A. Protas1.700.61022%0
WSH C. Hutson1.520.4207%0
NJD A. Mantha1.520.49019%0
NJD S. Noesen1.400.29113%0
WSH A. Beauvillier1.400.30014%0
NJD C. Glass1.330.30014%0
NJD B. Pesce1.300.2406%0
NJD J. Boqvist1.110.26112%0
WSH I. Protas1.130.44112%1
WSH T. Liljegren1.010.2606%0
WSH I. Miroshnichenko0.900.2008%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.910.3718%0
NJD J. Kovacevic0.800.1904%0
NJD D. Chisholm0.800.1704%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.700.1803%0
WSH V. Desharnais0.700.1823%0
WSH J. Holl0.600.1803%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.